The Eventual Fate of Arab Dictators and Its Significance

Two recent developments give conflicting messages as to the impending fate of dethroned dictators in the Arab World and its regional democratization implications.

On the one hand, Egypt has had Mubarak and his family under house arrest since his ouster. They are being investigated for both widespread corruption charges as well as ordering the killing of protestors. One Egyptian minister recently went as far as stating that if "ordering the killings charge is proven, it would imply the death penalty". This points to two significant developments: First that the matter is being taken seriously by Egyptian institutions which appear to be following what one would hope is legal due process. Second and more importantly, is that the Egyptian uprising is behind this, because in reality none in the military junta nor the international community would particularly benefit from persecuting the Mubaraks. It is being prodded by the people themselves who are asking for justice and accountability. This bodes well on Egypt and its revolution, which continues to surprise many in its perseverance and wisdom.

On the other hand we have Yemen, where Saleh's departure is being "negotiated" by Saudi Arabia and other GCC members. Essentially, the agreement is a barter exchange: Relinquishing power for immunity from persecution. This agreement, however, does not appear to be supported by the Yemeni people as the sit-ins remain firmly in place after its announcement- with a tendency to increase. The latest news from Yemen is that new crackdowns are meant to force the people to disperse and accept this agreement. This carries potential negative implications for the future institutionalization of democracy in that country. Essentially it attempts to force an expedient state of amnesia on a nation that has suffered at the hands of its dictator for the better part of 30 years. If it is enforced, with time it is bound to come back and bite one way or another. The Yemeni's are demanding what they want- justice and accountability- but are patronizingly being given pocket change by the GCC. Only giving in to their demands in their entirety will be sufficient to quell their massive demonstrations setting them on their way to a functional democracy. Trying to snuff the uprising will backfire sooner or later.

Early steps at institutionalizing democracy, part of which is  holding the dictators accountable, can have massive effects and path dependence trajectories. Now is not the time for expediency nor is it the time to circumvent proper procedures to bring the corrupt and the brutal dictators in the Arab World to justice. The uprisings are demanding it because in their mass wisdom, they realize it has got to be the beginning of a long and arduous healing and democratizing process for their battered societies. This Egypt admirably seems to be doing quite well.

Wanted: Entrepreneurship in the Middle East

Within the context of regional needs going forward, I was recently asked in a lecture why the Lebanese are so entrepreneurial?

The answer is quite simple. They have had to be. Throughout their history they have either been on the fringe of governance or without it.

My grandfather, Ghaleb, who is said to have studied in Boston in the early 20th century returned to a pre-independence Ottoman ruled Lebanon. He was politically prosecuted and had to flee for safety and to be able to make a living. He immigrated to Bombay in Raj India where he established a lucrative textile trade.

My father in his turn studied in England and upon his return started an education business, only to be thwarted by Lebanon's civil war. His creativity could not be stifled, and he moved to a barren Dubai in the early 70's where he continued with his business.

Similarly, I had to leave Lebanon to the US at an early age to finish my education. I started my own high tech business right after school. My son already displays some entrepreneurship traits by teaching his old man new social media trends and faux pas...

Our story is by no means exceptional. We are but another Lebanese family, which for one reason or another has had to turn to its own devices because the setting from which it came did not provide one. We are a product of our environment and I tend to think if it is not yet in our genes, in the very least, it is well engrained in our psyche. We have become what we inevitably have had to.

What has all this got to do with the Middle East's new Realities? It is all about self-reliance. Developed nations are as wealthy as they are because they have managed to maximize the productivity of the micro-elements within their societies making them self-reliant not to mention prosperous. Some falsely claim that large businesses control the United States. While they do exert considerable influence, 80% of employment actually comes from small businesses. According to the US Small Business Administration, there are more than 24 million small businesses in the United States as compared to about 50,000 large ones. The story is very similar in places such as Germany and Japan. Developing places such as Brazil, South Africa, and China point to a similar trend. Self-reliance appears to be a necessary and perhaps sufficient step to prosperity.

This brings us back to the new realities in the Middle East. Unless nations in the Arab World begin to seriously develop their micro elements, these societies will increasingly face difficulties as they democratize and liberalize. Self-sufficiency has got to replace government welfare. The sooner this is realized the less painful the inevitable shift will be. Entrepreneurship may not be the panacea, but it sure as heck is a good option when  government handouts dry up as they are bound to.

Mubarak's Library Cash Stash

This is an interesting article that I came across highlighting corrupt practices by incumbent Arab regimes, who for the most regard national resources as their own.


It is the tip of an Iceberg that extends well into the better part of 30 to 40 years of financial abuse all across the region, and which has left it in an unenvious economic position ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/dailybeast/20110425/ts_dailybeast/13694_egyptprosecutorsfindmysterious145millionmeantforlibraryundermubaraksname;_ylt=AtAqVPP.rTK4oiezQgvXIXwUewgF;_ylu=X3oDMTU4aGtxbDY0BGFzc2V0A2RhaWx5YmVhc3QvMjAxMTA0MjUvMTM2OTRfZWd5cHRwcm9zZWN1dG9yc2ZpbmRteXN0ZXJpb3VzMTQ1bWlsbGlvbm1lYW50Zm9ybGlicmFyeXVuZGVybXViYXJha3NuYW1lBGNjb2RlA29mZnB6ZjMwBGNwb3MDOARwb3MDOARzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA211YmFyYWtzbGlicg

A Speech Longing to be Read by an Arab Leader

My fellow countrymen,

I stand in front of you today for two reasons. The first is simply to apologize to all of you. After much introspection, I have come to realize that my rule has led you to a place few in the world would envy; and I cannot but hold myself ultimately responsible.

And so, I apologize because while I have tried to educate you, I stifled your capacity to think ...

I apologize because while I have tried to develop our nation, I failed to offer you jobs and a future your children could look forward to …

I apologize for leading your children to abandon you for distant lands …

I apologize for providing you the minimum, and then subduing your capacity to provide for yourselves …

I apologize for not controlling the corruption occurring within my regime at our nation’s expense …

I apologize because under my rule, our national treasure has dried up …

I apologize for not allowing you ask for direly needed change.

I apologize because I have committed acts of violence against you and those you love with the false pretense of securing you ...

I apologize for leading you to unjust wars that have left our nation weak and desolate and at the mercy of foreign powers …

I apologize for limiting my vision to my own survival and not that of our beloved country …

For all the above and much more, I apologize …

The second reason I stand in front of you today is to hereby irrevocably declare that the time has come for me to bow down and let you manage your own affairs. I do this realizing fully well the potential risks and uncertainty, but with firm confidence that if you continue to love and respect this country and your fellow countrymen and women, things will turn out just fine.

My countrymen, I shall bid you farewell now and not ask for an undeserved forgiveness.

May God have mercy  on us all and may He always bless our country.

What Happens Now?

In some of my recent lectures, I have been repeatedly receiving the same question. With Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Gadhafi, and Syria's Assad desperately and brutally clinging on to power, what happens now? Is the region headed towards a reversal of it's uprising? Will all of it come to naught nipped in the bud by these obstinate regimes and the interests behind them?


The answer is quite simply no. It is taking time as it perhaps must, but as I argue in the book, the general trend is irreversible. The issue was never security nor the monopoly of violence that these regimes wield over their populations. The primary argument in the book is the dynamics that brought about all these uprisings include geopolitical, geoeconomic, geosocial  and technological variables- most of which the regimes have little if any control over. Post uprising, these variables are all still firmly in place and in fact have become even more acute playing differing degrees of influence within the revolting nations. In Yemen, for example, poverty remains rampant, unemployment high, neither of which with any potential for alleviation from an incessantly growing population. If anything the recent unrest is bound to aggravate the situation, economically speaking. Not even the Gulf's counterweight (a potential geopolitically opposing force in this case) has been able to reverse events in Yemen. Actually, the GCC countries finally decided last week to come out calling for Yemen's Saleh to step down- a clear indication that they concluded if events cannot be reversed they might as well end up on the winning side.


In Syria, the Assad regime's internal struggle manifests itself almost daily with schizophrenic policies calling one day for the release of all jailed protesters and shooting at them the next. But again as in Yemen, Assad's Syria has dynamics at play that are also irreversible. The fact that it all started in Daraa- one of the poorest regions in Syria- is no coincidence. Poverty and youth unemployment and mass dissatisfaction with the regime's governance over the past 4 decades have all culminated in a force that has overcome the military and technological impediments that the regime put in place attempting to stop protesters from converging. If anything, the draconian measures that Assad's regime has put in place are bound to make the economic situation worse eventually and inevitably leading to a total collapse. Again in this case, neither Iranian support nor ironically Israeli covert support (some have suggested the devil you know theory that Israel is worried that an Assad replacement regime could pose an even greater threat to its status quo in the Golan) are likely to reverse the desperate needs or wants of the wretched portions within the Syria.


And finally we come to Gadhafi's Libya. There, the geopolitical shifts in Egypt to the East, Tunisia to the West, and NATO from above have all but sealed the eccentric dictator's fate. Add to that his brutal killing and bombing of civilians in opposition cities, and the slightest chance of reconciliation has disappeared. It is not surprising that Europe, which one would expect generally would have preferred a geopolitical status quo in Libya, has been leading the charge in calling for his ouster and very recently complete regime change- completely reversing its opposition to this policy. And still Gadhafi hangs on. The only shame is that he insists on spilling his countrymen and women's blood in his grand exit, almost forcing the end game to be his and his family's own demise not dissimilar to that of Saddam. It would come as no surprise if eventually NATO ends this whole rouse with a bombing to get rid of him once and for all.


It is natural for the incumbent regimes to attempt to hang on to power, which for years has brought them and their cliques power and riches. The game is up unfortunately; and anything they attempt to do to prolong their hold over power will ironically aggravate an already tenuous situation in their societies as it has done in Tunisia and Egypt. The dynamics in place are simply irreversible. The sooner the dictators realize this and relinquish power, the better the eventual outcome for their societies. This may seem wishful thinking, and it may very well be. But in truth, there really is nothing else they can do, certainly not killing and maiming.

If Assad Falls, We Will See all the Region's Alliances Unravel

An interesting article by Patrick Seale in the Guardian. Interesting for three reasons:


First, because of it's geopolitical implications on the rest of the region. Second, Turkey's key emerging role ...
Third, that it is discussed as being quite possible- dare I see inevitable?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/11/assad-falls-region-alliances-unravel