In some of my recent lectures, I have been repeatedly receiving the same question. With Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Gadhafi, and Syria's Assad desperately and brutally clinging on to power, what happens now? Is the region headed towards a reversal of it's uprising? Will all of it come to naught nipped in the bud by these obstinate regimes and the interests behind them?
The answer is quite simply no. It is taking time as it perhaps must, but as I argue in the book, the general trend is irreversible. The issue was never security nor the monopoly of violence that these regimes wield over their populations. The primary argument in the book is the dynamics that brought about all these uprisings include geopolitical, geoeconomic, geosocial and technological variables- most of which the regimes have little if any control over. Post uprising, these variables are all still firmly in place and in fact have become even more acute playing differing degrees of influence within the revolting nations. In Yemen, for example, poverty remains rampant, unemployment high, neither of which with any potential for alleviation from an incessantly growing population. If anything the recent unrest is bound to aggravate the situation, economically speaking. Not even the Gulf's counterweight (a potential geopolitically opposing force in this case) has been able to reverse events in Yemen. Actually, the GCC countries finally decided last week to come out calling for Yemen's Saleh to step down- a clear indication that they concluded if events cannot be reversed they might as well end up on the winning side.
In Syria, the Assad regime's internal struggle manifests itself almost daily with schizophrenic policies calling one day for the release of all jailed protesters and shooting at them the next. But again as in Yemen, Assad's Syria has dynamics at play that are also irreversible. The fact that it all started in Daraa- one of the poorest regions in Syria- is no coincidence. Poverty and youth unemployment and mass dissatisfaction with the regime's governance over the past 4 decades have all culminated in a force that has overcome the military and technological impediments that the regime put in place attempting to stop protesters from converging. If anything, the draconian measures that Assad's regime has put in place are bound to make the economic situation worse eventually and inevitably leading to a total collapse. Again in this case, neither Iranian support nor ironically Israeli covert support (some have suggested the devil you know theory that Israel is worried that an Assad replacement regime could pose an even greater threat to its status quo in the Golan) are likely to reverse the desperate needs or wants of the wretched portions within the Syria.
And finally we come to Gadhafi's Libya. There, the geopolitical shifts in Egypt to the East, Tunisia to the West, and NATO from above have all but sealed the eccentric dictator's fate. Add to that his brutal killing and bombing of civilians in opposition cities, and the slightest chance of reconciliation has disappeared. It is not surprising that Europe, which one would expect generally would have preferred a geopolitical status quo in Libya, has been leading the charge in calling for his ouster and very recently complete regime change- completely reversing its opposition to this policy. And still Gadhafi hangs on. The only shame is that he insists on spilling his countrymen and women's blood in his grand exit, almost forcing the end game to be his and his family's own demise not dissimilar to that of Saddam. It would come as no surprise if eventually NATO ends this whole rouse with a bombing to get rid of him once and for all.
It is natural for the incumbent regimes to attempt to hang on to power, which for years has brought them and their cliques power and riches. The game is up unfortunately; and anything they attempt to do to prolong their hold over power will ironically aggravate an already tenuous situation in their societies as it has done in Tunisia and Egypt. The dynamics in place are simply irreversible. The sooner the dictators realize this and relinquish power, the better the eventual outcome for their societies. This may seem wishful thinking, and it may very well be. But in truth, there really is nothing else they can do, certainly not killing and maiming.
