Egypt Trial of Mubarak Begins: A BBC Video

The following BBC article and video of Mubarak on a stretcher inside of a caged courthouse being tried for his misdeeds is surreal and points to the inevitable fruits of the Egyptian revolution's labor. Anyone thinking that the temporrary Egyptian military junta will dare attempt to create a post-Mubarak neo-dictatorship should think again. These scenes are earily similar to those of Saddam a handful years ago (who together with most of his clique were summarily executed) but with one major difference. The trial was not brought about by a foreign power and an imposed democracy but rather by an organic and home-grown revolution- one whose potential recurrence is bound to continue sending shivers down the spine of any overly ambitious dictatorial Egyptian or Arab leader.

Fearful of the same fate, and as ultimately futile as it may prove, we should expect incumbent Arab dictators to want to attempt to hold on even more to their power- and that inlcudes Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Qadhafi, and Syria's Assad.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14382997

Until When Will Situation Persist In Hama?

It is one thing for a government to want to restore order. It is another for it to declare war on it's people for demonstrating. While no one can be 100% certain of what is going on in Syria, what is for sure is that the Syrian regime does not help its cause by sending tanks into residential areas of Hama, a city almost wiped out a couple of decades ago. Nor does it help its cause by denying the international press access. Is it not high time the international community did something more than just pay lip service to the Syrian people?

Here is a recent BBC article about the current state of affairs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14360027

'Christian terrorist'? Norway case strikes debate: AP Article

This is an interesting article by the Associated Press, which highlights the introspection currently occuring in the West as a result of Norway's terrorist attacks, which seem to have been concocted by one of its own. If anything, it proves that religious extremism, bigotry, and terrorism are not limited to any single creed, color, or nationality and spares no one of its pains. What a shame that Norway and its people had to become its latest tragic victims. I fear, it may not be the last ...

http://news.yahoo.com/christian-terrorist-norway-case-strikes-debate-181559379.html.

Trying to Figure Out Social Media: An Article

The role that technology has been playing in the Middle East uprisings is indisputable. Where stifling the media was a common regional practice by the autocratic regimes only a few years ago, Chapter 4 of the book details emerging technological realities and how technology has been opposing and indeed breaking down all forms of censure.

This phenomenon is not purely an Arab one, of course, and the influence is being felt globally. Following is an interesting article I came across that highlights how even resource-rich and technologically advanced nations and organizations in the West- such as the Pentagon- are grappling with it.  

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/10885-pentagon-looks-to-social-media-as-new-battlefield.

Somalia: Yet Another Tragic Arab Story

As Libya, Syria, Yemen and Egypt battle for democratic survival, Somalia is facing a battle even more grave- that of famine. Approximately 1.5 million Somalis are currently teetering on the brink. Interestingly enough and rather counter-intuitively, according to recent reports, this famine is not due solely to climactic conditions nor to a shortage of food. Rather, it is due to a failed state that has been unable to provide for its citizens- even when it has received aid that is earmarked for that purpose. The world is now scampering trying to figure out solutions to alleviate the Somalian people's hunger.

If nothing else Somalia is a sad case study for the entire region of what falling into anarchy and disorder would look like and what it could result in.

Here is an article written by CNN's Moni Basu: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/07/20/somalia.famine/index.html?hpt=hp_bn2.

On the Impossibility of Reforming Incumbent Arab Regimes

In the research leading up to this book, it became clear to me that Arab regimes cannot reform– even if they needed to- because it is essentially a self-inflicting exercise. There are multiple justifications for this:

First, they stand to lose the most from change because it was essentially a zero sum game (what society needs, they have to give up in concessions).

Second, assuming the regime still manages to find the goodwill to reform, skyrocketing entropic rates within the regimes due to increasing corruption, nepotism, and massive government payrolls makes it all but impossible to carry through any serious reform without alienating others within the ruling regime- especially the hardliners. The best one could hope for from them is a semblance of reform with carefully paced change. Indeed, by making change eternally slow, their hope was to ultimately avoid it. It didn’t work; and I argued as far back as 2005 through published Op Eds that it wasn’t change that needed to be paced, but rather pace that needed to be changed.

Third, is the age of most of these regimes, most of which have been around for decades. These are not the vibrant catalysts needed, nor will they be willing to take risks that could come back and undermine their own power.

Fourth, they simply do not have the know how (let alone inclination); and those who do have generally been either jailed, executed, or otherwise banished.

I found it quite laughable at the apex of the uprising in Egypt to see some suggesting that a regime such as Mubarak’s should be expected to carry out any meaningful reform. Not only was the man an octogenarian, he had been power for three decades and not done it. The regime did try on some fronts in the middle of the last decade, especially on the economic front. But it made sure it kept things in check, especially on the political front. When it finally realized the magnitude of the problem following the January 2011 uprising, it was too late ...

There is really no reason to believe that fundamentally hollow Arab regimes such as Syria, Libya, and Yemen could possibly hope to fare any better.

Larry Diamond on Democratic Emergence in Southeast Asia in the 1990's

This is a very relevant quote by Stanford's Larry Diamond as referenced by Thomas Friedman in the Lexus And The Olive Tree, Anchor Books, 2000, p.g. 187-188. Larry Diamond has written extensively on Democracy. His latest book The Spirit of Democracy discusses the  desire even among poor societies to adopt democracy and also tackles why democracy has receded somewhat in places like Venezuela and Russia.

“The Southeast Asian leaders were telling their people for most of the post-World War II era: ‘You give me your freedom and you keep your mouth shut, and I will give you the opportunity to get rich’. It was easy for people to be apolitical when all boats were rising, and people felt that they could leave political management to someone else without harming their economic well being. Well that worked fine for about thirty years, but then the growth collapsed and the distribution of riches, welfare, and benefits collapsed too. And people realized that they could not leave politics to someone else. So the bargain breaks down. As a result, what the people have said to their governments in Thailand, Indonesia, Korea… is that if you have taken away our growth, if the state cannot deliver on the previous bargain, then we want a new bargain and in this bargain we are going to have a much bigger say in how the system operates. But because we have a bigger say, we will be ready to make bigger sacrifices while the system is reformed and gets up to speed. And that is why they are ready to exhibit considerably more patience in the face of economic suffering than many people expected. Because their politics has been opened and democratized, they at least have more of a feeling that they are working through these problems with a degree of equality. They become part owners of the game”