Two recent developments give conflicting messages as to the impending fate of dethroned dictators in the Arab World and its regional democratization implications.
On the one hand, Egypt has had Mubarak and his family under house arrest since his ouster. They are being investigated for both widespread corruption charges as well as ordering the killing of protestors. One Egyptian minister recently went as far as stating that if "ordering the killings charge is proven, it would imply the death penalty". This points to two significant developments: First that the matter is being taken seriously by Egyptian institutions which appear to be following what one would hope is legal due process. Second and more importantly, is that the Egyptian uprising is behind this, because in reality none in the military junta nor the international community would particularly benefit from persecuting the Mubaraks. It is being prodded by the people themselves who are asking for justice and accountability. This bodes well on Egypt and its revolution, which continues to surprise many in its perseverance and wisdom.
On the other hand we have Yemen, where Saleh's departure is being "negotiated" by Saudi Arabia and other GCC members. Essentially, the agreement is a barter exchange: Relinquishing power for immunity from persecution. This agreement, however, does not appear to be supported by the Yemeni people as the sit-ins remain firmly in place after its announcement- with a tendency to increase. The latest news from Yemen is that new crackdowns are meant to force the people to disperse and accept this agreement. This carries potential negative implications for the future institutionalization of democracy in that country. Essentially it attempts to force an expedient state of amnesia on a nation that has suffered at the hands of its dictator for the better part of 30 years. If it is enforced, with time it is bound to come back and bite one way or another. The Yemeni's are demanding what they want- justice and accountability- but are patronizingly being given pocket change by the GCC. Only giving in to their demands in their entirety will be sufficient to quell their massive demonstrations setting them on their way to a functional democracy. Trying to snuff the uprising will backfire sooner or later.
Early steps at institutionalizing democracy, part of which is holding the dictators accountable, can have massive effects and path dependence trajectories. Now is not the time for expediency nor is it the time to circumvent proper procedures to bring the corrupt and the brutal dictators in the Arab World to justice. The uprisings are demanding it because in their mass wisdom, they realize it has got to be the beginning of a long and arduous healing and democratizing process for their battered societies. This Egypt admirably seems to be doing quite well.
On the one hand, Egypt has had Mubarak and his family under house arrest since his ouster. They are being investigated for both widespread corruption charges as well as ordering the killing of protestors. One Egyptian minister recently went as far as stating that if "ordering the killings charge is proven, it would imply the death penalty". This points to two significant developments: First that the matter is being taken seriously by Egyptian institutions which appear to be following what one would hope is legal due process. Second and more importantly, is that the Egyptian uprising is behind this, because in reality none in the military junta nor the international community would particularly benefit from persecuting the Mubaraks. It is being prodded by the people themselves who are asking for justice and accountability. This bodes well on Egypt and its revolution, which continues to surprise many in its perseverance and wisdom.
On the other hand we have Yemen, where Saleh's departure is being "negotiated" by Saudi Arabia and other GCC members. Essentially, the agreement is a barter exchange: Relinquishing power for immunity from persecution. This agreement, however, does not appear to be supported by the Yemeni people as the sit-ins remain firmly in place after its announcement- with a tendency to increase. The latest news from Yemen is that new crackdowns are meant to force the people to disperse and accept this agreement. This carries potential negative implications for the future institutionalization of democracy in that country. Essentially it attempts to force an expedient state of amnesia on a nation that has suffered at the hands of its dictator for the better part of 30 years. If it is enforced, with time it is bound to come back and bite one way or another. The Yemeni's are demanding what they want- justice and accountability- but are patronizingly being given pocket change by the GCC. Only giving in to their demands in their entirety will be sufficient to quell their massive demonstrations setting them on their way to a functional democracy. Trying to snuff the uprising will backfire sooner or later.
Early steps at institutionalizing democracy, part of which is holding the dictators accountable, can have massive effects and path dependence trajectories. Now is not the time for expediency nor is it the time to circumvent proper procedures to bring the corrupt and the brutal dictators in the Arab World to justice. The uprisings are demanding it because in their mass wisdom, they realize it has got to be the beginning of a long and arduous healing and democratizing process for their battered societies. This Egypt admirably seems to be doing quite well.
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