In September of 1993, I happened to be in Medellin, Colombia of all places. I recall quite well it was a very wet and rainy day in what was known at the time as the drug capital of the world. That morning one of the most wanted criminals in the world, Pablo Escobar, made a phone call to his son. It would cost him his life. At the time, he had been living in hiding for several years and some reports had said he had been sighted as far as Brazil. Others reported that he had completely changed his face. Turns out none of it was true. The phone call was intercepted by the CIA and Colombian intelligence and traced to a regular townhouse in a regular residential area in the middle of Medellin. He had been hiding out in the open all along. An elite Colombian force was dispatched, a firefight ensued, and the infamous Escobar was no more.
This story was almost replicated a couple of days ago. This time the global manhunt was on Bin Laden. Again, a phone call was intercepted by the CIA, but this time an American elite force was dispatched to get the work done and Bin Laden became a part of world's history books.
Some are beginning to question what will happen to Al Qaeda now that Bin Laden is gone. Perhaps looking at what happened to Medellin's infamous drug cartel can shed some light.
Upon Escobar's death, there was a power struggle with other regional cartels (Cali and the Colombian Coast cartels). This led to some infighting that eliminated Escobar's henchmen and closest partners. What eventually ensued were dozens and sometimes even hundreds of mini capos that currently for all intents and purposes do not appear on any major radar. The monopoly of the trade splintered into many pieces. This did not necessarily reduce from the amount of the drug trade per se. What it did reduce, however, is any national sovereignty threat. None of these new drug splinter groups were big enough as Escobar had been to threaten the whole nation. Their mantra of survival became keeping their heads down.
The world of global terrorism is likely to witness something very similar. On the one hand, post Bin Laden Al Qaeda still has henchmen such as Al Zawahiri and others. But none at this point appear to be capable of taking over the mantle nor may have the funding for it- that is unless one of Bin Laden's surviving sons decides to try his luck. As unlikely as this may seem, in that part of the world one never knows... Most likely, however, the organization not unlike the Colombian cartels in the 1990's will splinter into many smaller groups. As a matter of fact this had started occurring even before Bin Laden's death. The reason for this quite simply is geographic coverage. Unable to communicate effectively over such a huge Islamic expanse, the only way for the organization to work was for it to decentralize and it did so. This splintering process is likely to accelerate now that Bin Laden is gone. This may mean two things: First that Al Qaeda is not likely to disappear. Second and more ominously, terrorism is likely to continue.
Interestingly, in the case of drug imports, the United States seems to be resigned to an acceptable range of imports. Completely eradicating drugs has proven to be exorbitant and impractical. The question to ask now is whether or not there would be an "acceptable" equivalent in terms of terrorism?
This is a question only the future can answer, but a democratizing Arab world, which consolidates Arab states and has them responding to the needs of their citizens will certainly prove to be an antidote against a splintered Al Qaeda.
This story was almost replicated a couple of days ago. This time the global manhunt was on Bin Laden. Again, a phone call was intercepted by the CIA, but this time an American elite force was dispatched to get the work done and Bin Laden became a part of world's history books.
Some are beginning to question what will happen to Al Qaeda now that Bin Laden is gone. Perhaps looking at what happened to Medellin's infamous drug cartel can shed some light.
Upon Escobar's death, there was a power struggle with other regional cartels (Cali and the Colombian Coast cartels). This led to some infighting that eliminated Escobar's henchmen and closest partners. What eventually ensued were dozens and sometimes even hundreds of mini capos that currently for all intents and purposes do not appear on any major radar. The monopoly of the trade splintered into many pieces. This did not necessarily reduce from the amount of the drug trade per se. What it did reduce, however, is any national sovereignty threat. None of these new drug splinter groups were big enough as Escobar had been to threaten the whole nation. Their mantra of survival became keeping their heads down.
The world of global terrorism is likely to witness something very similar. On the one hand, post Bin Laden Al Qaeda still has henchmen such as Al Zawahiri and others. But none at this point appear to be capable of taking over the mantle nor may have the funding for it- that is unless one of Bin Laden's surviving sons decides to try his luck. As unlikely as this may seem, in that part of the world one never knows... Most likely, however, the organization not unlike the Colombian cartels in the 1990's will splinter into many smaller groups. As a matter of fact this had started occurring even before Bin Laden's death. The reason for this quite simply is geographic coverage. Unable to communicate effectively over such a huge Islamic expanse, the only way for the organization to work was for it to decentralize and it did so. This splintering process is likely to accelerate now that Bin Laden is gone. This may mean two things: First that Al Qaeda is not likely to disappear. Second and more ominously, terrorism is likely to continue.
Interestingly, in the case of drug imports, the United States seems to be resigned to an acceptable range of imports. Completely eradicating drugs has proven to be exorbitant and impractical. The question to ask now is whether or not there would be an "acceptable" equivalent in terms of terrorism?
This is a question only the future can answer, but a democratizing Arab world, which consolidates Arab states and has them responding to the needs of their citizens will certainly prove to be an antidote against a splintered Al Qaeda.
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