A Grand Bargain in Baabda? Lebanon’s Crossroads Between Sovereignty and Strategy

The recent visit by U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Lindsey Graham to Lebanon’s Presidential Palace together with Presidential envoys Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus and Congressman Jim Wilson has stirred cautious optimism and deep skepticism in equal measure. Their proposal—an ambitious framework involving potentially a Mutual Defense Agreement, reconstruction and economic revitalization in the South, banking reform, and reintegration of paramilitary actors—hinges on one condition: the disarmament of Hezbollah, even before Israel vacates its remaining positions in southern Lebanon.

This is not just a diplomatic overture. It’s a tectonic shift in how Lebanon might reimagine its sovereignty, security, and regional role. But is it a genuine lifeline or a geopolitical trap?

The American Perspective: Strategic Leverage in the Levant

From Washington’s vantage point, Lebanon represents a critical node in the Levant—a region where U.S. influence has waned amid rising Russian and Iranian assertiveness. A foothold in Lebanon would offer the U.S. a strategic counterbalance to Tehran’s proxy network and a stabilizing presence near Syria and Israel.

The Mutual Defense Agreement would formalize U.S. military support for the Lebanese Armed Forces, potentially deterring external aggression and internal fragmentation. Economic investment, particularly in the underdeveloped South, would serve dual purposes: reducing Hezbollah’s grassroots appeal and showcasing American soft power.

But the linchpin is disarmament. For the U.S., Hezbollah’s military wing is not just a domestic Lebanese issue—it’s a regional threat. Washington wants to see the Lebanese state reclaim its monopoly over arms and decisions of war and peace, a principle enshrined in the Ta’if Agreement but never fully realized.

The Lebanese Perspective: Sovereignty, Skepticism, and Survival

Lebanon’s skepticism is not unfounded. The U.S. has long been perceived as a partisan actor in the region, with unwavering support for Israel—even during periods of aggression against Lebanese territory. Asking Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah before Israel withdraws from disputed areas like the five points feels, to many, like putting the cart before the horse.

Moreover, Hezbollah is not merely a militia. It is a political party, a social welfare provider, and—rightly or wrongly—a symbol of resistance. Disarming it without a comprehensive national consensus risks civil unrest and political fragmentation.

Yet Lebanon is at a breaking point. The banking crisis has hollowed out the middle class. Youth unemployment is soaring. Infrastructure is crumbling. The Lebanese Army, though respected, is underfunded and overstretched. In this context, the U.S. proposal—if genuine and enforceable—could be a lifeline.

Negotiating the Grand Deal: A Path Forward

Lebanon must approach this proposal not as a passive recipient but as a sovereign negotiator. Here’s how:

1. Sequence, Not Surrender

Lebanon should insist on a phased approach. Disarmament of Hezbollah must be contingent on:

- A formal Israeli withdrawal from all occupied Lebanese territories

- A binding U.S. commitment to the Mutual Defense Agreement, ratified by Congress

- A UN-backed verification mechanism to ensure compliance on all sides

This sequence respects Lebanese sovereignty and avoids unilateral concessions.

2. Economic Guarantees

The proposed economic zone in the South must be more than a promise. Lebanon should demand:

- A multi-year investment plan with benchmarks and oversight

- Inclusion of Lebanese diaspora investors and regional partners

- Job creation programs targeting former paramilitary members, with vocational training and psychological support

3. Security Reform

The Lebanese Army must be empowered as the sole legitimate military force. This requires:

- Expanded U.S. military aid, including equipment, training, and intelligence sharing

- A national dialogue on integrating Hezbollah’s non-military assets into civil society

- Legal reforms to ensure transparency and accountability in defense spending

4. Diplomatic Balancing

Lebanon must maintain its delicate equilibrium. While engaging the U.S., it should also:

- Reaffirm its commitment to Arab League principles

- Engage with European and regional actors to diversify support

- Avoid becoming a pawn to regional or global rivalries

From Proxy to Partner: Lebanon’s Bid for Strategic Autonomy

Ultimately, the question is not whether Lebanon should trust the U.S. blindly. It is whether Lebanon can leverage this moment to reclaim its agency. A Lebanon where the state—not factions—controls arms. A Lebanon where economic opportunity replaces archaic loyalties. A Lebanon that is not defined by its past wars but by its future peace. This grand bargain, if negotiated wisely, could be the beginning of such a transformation. But it must be rooted in mutual respect, verifiable commitments, and a clear-eyed understanding of the risks.

Lebanon stands at a historic inflection point—not merely between war and peace, but between paralysis and possibility. The U.S. proposal, if real and reciprocal, offers Lebanon a rare chance to rewrite its strategic narrative: from a fractured state defined by proxy conflicts to a sovereign actor shaping its own destiny. But this transformation cannot be coerced—it must be earned through principled negotiation, ironclad guarantees, and a phased roadmap that respects Lebanon’s dignity and complexity. If the United States truly seeks a foothold in the Levant, it must first prove it can be a partner in Lebanon’s rebirth—not just its containment. And if Lebanon dares to seize this moment, it must do so not with blind trust, but with bold vision. The world is watching. So are the Lebanese. Let the next chapter be written by patriotic statesmen, who have vision and resolve, not by ghosts of old wars.

Lebanon’s Crossroads: Going for a Third Choice- From Standoff to Engagement

Lebanon stands at a perilous crossroads. Two entrenched positions—each armed with legitimate grievances—continue to clash, while the country itself teeters under the weight of failed policies, foreign aggression, and internal paralysis. If Lebanon is to survive and thrive, both camps must loosen their grip on absolutism and begin engaging with one another constructively to find a third choice.

The Case for Defense

For decades, Lebanon was left defenseless—invaded, plundered, and its citizens killed. Even today, the international community undermines its right to arm itself. Those in power have failed to reassure the people living in the direct line of fire. When the enemy violates truces or launches attacks, the response has been tepid at best—mere words in the face of existential threats.

The Resistance’s Dilemma

The Resistance, for its part, while undeniably inflicting damage on the enemy and halting its advances; it could not prevent the devastation of the South, Beqaa valley, and Beirut. Acting outside the framework of the Lebanese state risks playing directly into the enemy’s hands—justifying another brutal campaign by a regime that lacks both moral compass and legal restraint. The cost of unilateral action will be borne not just by the Resistance and its community, but by Lebanon as a whole.

A Nation Fractured

This is not a binary issue. Lebanon cannot afford to fracture itself with endless, intransigent debate over arms at a time when there is a regional genocide occurring. Nor should it fall into the trap of having to choose between either disarmament by force through a foreign war or one that leads to a civil war. Instead, it must find a third way to unite—huddle, think, plan, and then act assertively. The question at hand is not merely tactical; it is existential. Who do we want to be as a nation? How do we protect ourselves in times of crisis without losing our soul? And how do we solve complex differences through the understanding and respect of all citizens and their legitimate concerns.

Five Proposed Steps to Break the Deadlock

Here are five actionable steps that could help Lebanon move forward:

1. Reframe the Arms Debate
   This should not be about “disarming” but about “transferring” heavy weaponry to the Lebanese Army. Lebanon is barred from purchasing arms, and the army needs them. Small arms—like in the U.S. and Israel—should remain a domestic matter. Given what disarmed populations face in the West Bank, Southerners have every reason to be cautious.
   
   
2. Integrate the Resistance
   The Resistance’s military discipline and intelligence capabilities are invaluable. Rather than dismantling it, Lebanon should incorporate key elements into a new unit—perhaps the Lebanese Defense Forces (LDF)—under the national army’s command.
   
   
3. Engage the Real Power Broker
   Israel may have pulled the trigger, but the U.S. supplied the weaponry. Lebanon should engage directly with Washington. A bold diplomatic package—tariff-free trade, gas exploration rights, infrastructure partnerships, even a U.S. base in the South—could be exchanged for Israeli withdrawal, military support, and reconstruction aid. A symbolic gesture, like offering Trump the Holiday Inn to transform into a Trump Hotel, might sweeten the deal.
   
   
4. Leverage Legal and Diplomatic Channels
   With a former ICJ judge as Prime Minister, Lebanon should build a legal case against Israeli occupation and pursue it at the International Court of Justice. Simultaneously, a diplomatic tour across Europe and the UN should advocate for reparations, elevate the UN’s role in Lebanon, and facilitate the safe return of Syrian refugees—followed by a comprehensive environmental recovery plan.
   
   
5. Rebuild to Reconnect
   The Lebanese state must commit to rebuilding every city and village destroyed by Israeli aggression. This is not just about infrastructure—it’s about restoring trust and permanently binding these communities to the state.

Lebanon’s future depends on its ability to transcend entrenched narratives and forge a unified path forward. The stakes are too high for division. It's time for a third choice that circumvents standoff and instead offers national reconciliation, attending to the grievances of all citizens. It's time to think boldly, act strategically, and reclaim our sovereignty with wisdom and resolve. It's time to have a single vision for the country that all Lebanese can agree on.