Wednesday, December 7, 2011

On Assad's Interview with Barbara Walters

Mind boggling ... Utterly mind boggling ... A detached demeanor pointing if nothing else to a man truly not running the show at all ... or perhaps a man who does not feel cornered pointing, dare I say, to a Farsi retirement strategy ... ?

You are invited to reach your own conclusions. Here's the interview: 
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/newsmakers/abc-exclusive-defiant-assad-denies-ordering-bloody-crackdown-111944523.html

Friday, November 4, 2011

The Arab Intellectual Chasm with the Times

In a recent article in the New York times, Robert Worth questions the role (or lack thereof) that the Arab Intelligentsia have had on the current revolutions transpiring in the region. He writes,

The absence of such figures in the Arab Spring is partly a measure of the pressures Arab intellectuals have lived under in recent decades, trapped between brutal state repression on one side and stifling Islamic orthodoxy on the other. Many were co-opted by their governments (or Persian Gulf oil money) or forced into exile, where they lost touch with the lived reality of their societies. Those who remained have often applauded the revolts of the past year and even marched along with the crowds. But they have not led them, and often appeared stunned and confused by a movement they failed to predict.       

I touched on the very subject from some different angles in an Op Ed article published in 2003, which I invite my readers to review:


Arab Intelligentsia Walks a Tightrope
Wissam S Yafi
As published in:
The Daily Star and Al Jazeera, 5/14/03

Arab intelligentsia, carpe diem! In the runup to the Iraq war, much of the Arab intelligentsia walked a tightrope. While not wanting to be perceived as supporting Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime, they vigorously condemned America. Even before the first bullet had been fired, typewriters banged away in New York, London, and Paris finding America guilty of warmongering, oil robbing, and colonization.

What is ironic is that the intelligentsia is by definition enlightened and hence liberal in its inclination. Recently though, the Arab intelligentsia accidentally found itself in the unorthodox position of defending one of the most repressive regimes in the world against one of the most liberal. How did this twist of fate come about? There were several reasons. With the war almost over, it is important to understand them, for they will affect the development of some of the liberal ideas being propagated.

The first reason for this twist is chronic disenchantment. Arabs over the past several decades have become disillusioned with lack of economic opportunity, political representation, and social stability. Pan Arabism failed. Autocracies failed. Military dictatorships failed. Being at the forefront of some of these movements, it is not surprising that the Arab intelligentsia has turned skeptical. The key questions to be asked here are therefore: Has the intelligentsia become so disenchanted that it will give up at the moment when real liberal reform may finally be emerging? Will they no longer preach for the one social ideal that has yet to be tried in their region ­-democracy- ­ because it was forcefully brought in by America, even if it is closest to their principles?

This brings us to the second reason: Arab pride. After centuries of military defeat and humiliation by external powers, some Arabs perceive their pride to be all that remains and obstinately take counterintuitive positions and ones in apparent self-disinterest- Palestinian suicide bombings of Israeli civilians as opposed to Israeli military targets being a case in point. While pride is good, unbridled pride risks blindness and perhaps even ridicule, such as met the declarations of Sahaf, the Iraqi information minister. While for it to occur within a very closed and isolated Baathist Iraq may be understandable, for it to also occur to Arab thinkers living in much less repressive environments points to a more serious problem. There comes a time when humility, national interest and the desire to learn from mistakes must be made more expedient than pride. Germany and Japan after World War II are good examples to learn from, having risen from humiliation by sheer hard work, intelligence; and yes why not, a bit of national pride.

The third reason for the Arab intelligentsia’s apparent misalignment may be their misunderstanding of the Arab street. While it may be easy to blame the intelligentsia, in reality does anyone in the Arab world truly know what the Arab street wants? Everybody was saying that Iraqis loved Saddam Hussein until the images of them trampling on his fallen statue’s head emerged. While some may point to polls, what is it exactly that these polls are measured against when little if any institutionalized opposition exists to come up with alternative ideas; when political process for the most part is imaginary, generating chronic apathy; and when clientelism reigns supreme? Could it be that all the Arab street wants is practical solutions and­ freedom to think and work, perhaps?

The fourth reason is simply geopolitical miscalculation. Pre-Sept. 11, 2001 Cold War intrigue was overutilized, post-Sept. 11, 2001 realities ignored, American intentions and interests misunderstood, and Iraqi power and regime allegiance overestimated. Nevertheless, it was surprising to see some renowned expatriate Arab thinkers sticking to over-simplistic and outdated conspiracy theories when indications pointed to fundamental shifts in US policy toward the region.

With all this said, what does it all mean to the future of the region? Essentially, it means one of two scenarios. One is that the Arab intelligentsia puts the past behind it, sets pride aside, and searches for a flicker within itself to light a torch that carries a liberal message. Another scenario is that it could bury itself under a heap of past disappointments, emerging only to regain what little pride it perceives still remains through futile and unconstructive attacks on any reform initiative coming to the region.

Recently, many typewriters have fallen silent. My hope is that it is a sign of introspection and not surrender, because a difference can yet be made. Arab intelligentsia, Carpe diem!

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Is Might Always Right? Apparently Not ...


A fascinating article on the consequential implications of this apparently inconsequential UNESCO Palestinian vote on the US and tech companies of all people ... It seems the US has put itself in quite a bind with some commentators questioning whether the US is ready to "boot itself out" of some of the world's most important governing bodies including the UN, WHO, WIPO ... etc. Idiotic by the US t...o get itself in this bind and will be interesting to see how it gets itself out of it. Here's a quick solution: Forget about the whole issue and move on ... The Palestinians seem to have outwitted the US for a change or as a Reuters reporter termed it "Now has the US over a barrel". So, it seems might is not always right after all ...

Monday, October 31, 2011

Palestinians get Unesco seat as 107 vote in favour

Great news as reported by the BBC:
Article referenced on: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15518173.


The UN cultural organisation has voted strongly in favour of membership for the Palestinians - a move opposed by Israel and the United States.

Of 173 countries voting, 107 were in favour, 14 opposed and 52 abstained.

Under US law, Washington can now withdraw funding to Unesco. This would deprive the agency of some $70m (£43.7m) - more than 20% of its budget.

The UN Security Council will vote next month on whether to grant the Palestinians full UN membership.

Membership of Unesco - perhaps best known for its World Heritage Sites - may seem a strange step towards statehood, says the BBC's Jon Donnison, in Ramallah, but Palestinian leaders see it as part of a broader push to get international recognition and put pressure on Israel.

This is the first UN agency the Palestinians have sought to join since submitting their bid for recognition to the Security Council in September.

"This vote will erase a tiny part of the injustice done to the Palestinian people," Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Malki told the Unesco meeting in Paris, after the result was announced.

Widespread applause greeted the result of Monday's vote in the chamber, where a two-thirds majority is enough to pass the decision and no country has the right of veto.

The BBC's David Chazan in Paris says Arab states were instrumental in getting the vote passed despite intense opposition from the US. He says that in an emotional session, China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa voted in favour of Palestinian membership, while the US, Canada and Germany voted against and the UK abstained.
'No shortcuts'
The outcome was swiftly denounced by the US and Israel.

US ambassador to Unesco David Killion called the move "premature" and "counterproductive", and said it could affect relations.

"We recognise that this action today will complicate our ability to support Unesco's programmes," he told journalists.

"The only path to the Palestinian state that we all seek is through direct negotiations. There are no shortcuts."

A US law passed in the 1990s allows Washington to cut funding to any UN body that admits Palestine as a full member.

The US currently funds more than 20% of Unesco's entire budget.

An Israeli foreign ministry statement called the vote a "unilateral Palestinian manoeuvre which will bring no change on the ground but further removes the possibility for a peace agreement".

"The Palestinian move at Unesco, as with similar such steps with other UN bodies, is tantamount to a rejection of the international community's efforts to advance the peace process," it said.

The statement added that Israel would be considering further steps regarding its co-operation with Unesco.

Correspondents say Monday's vote is a symbolic breakthrough but that on its own it will not create a Palestinian state.

A vote is expected in November at the UN Security Council on granting full membership of the UN to the Palestinians. The US has said it will exercise its veto.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Gadhafi's Inevitable Fate

Another Arab dictator bites the dust... Of course some say Gadhafi had a choice between "walking away" with Billions or "dying"... Did he really? I tend to think not. He chose the latter not because he was an irrational idiot (although he appeared to be one at times), nor because of a supreme belief in a cause (there was none); and certainly not because of any suicidal wish (for himself and members of his family).

Rather, it seems to have been a rational decision because deep down he knew that the day he would step out of power- no matter how much money he had- would be the day his 42 years' worth of atrocities would catch up with him. His rational choice simply tried to postpone the inevitable to the last minute ... his dying words reportedly were "Don't shoot" ... They did shoot to kill as he had done to thousands before him.

His inevitable fate had finally caught up with him.

For more info on Gadhafi's death, access this report: http://news.yahoo.com/gadhafi-libyas-leader-42-years-killed-143212662.html

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Open Letter Against Bigotry in Virginia

While I may not be a resident of the 87th Virginia district, I am writing this letter because of the indignation I feel towards the treatment that Virginia delegate candidate David Ramadan has been receiving from some of his political opponents in that district. As a fellow Virginian concerned about the overall wellbeing of this great Commonwealth, I have been utterly shocked by the bigotry being hurled at David- some of it by members of his own party- targeting his background and his religious beliefs.

So let’s get straight into it. Is David a Lebanese American? Yes, he was born in Lebanon, and has been a naturalized American for almost two decades. Is he of the Muslim faith? Yes, he is a Muslim, but in all of the 30 years I have known him, he has never shown religious extremism nor zeal. Does he have a hidden Islamic Shari’a Law agenda? Of course not; had he any particular religious design on the Commonwealth, one would think he would start closer to home. And yet he is happily married to Christie, who continues to practice her Christian beliefs a decade into their marriage. And the list of ridiculously bigoted suggestions goes on …

As a fellow American and Virginian from a Lebanese background, I am the first to admit that I am not in agreement with many of David’s deeply conservative political ideas. As a result, I respectfully declined to participate in his campaign notwithstanding our close friendship. But in this, I made a cognizant political choice not one based on the candidate’s origin nor his faith- both of which we actually share. And yet while we may be politically polar opposites, I have no doubt whatsoever of his love and loyalty to this country. What qualifies me to say this? Aside from knowing him for almost three decades, I was literally there at the airport to pick him up in 1989 upon his first arrival to this country. Proud and happy, he looked forward to a new beginning in the land of opportunity. In the ensuing years, he would prove it. David worked hard in business while finishing his education. He proved to be a family man, helping bring his brothers to share his American dream. He even found time to get involved in extra-curricular political campaigns and would become a dedicated republican and supporter of a conservative agenda, organizing several events. A memorable occasion was one in which he helped bring to light the ordeal of kidnapped Americans released in his native Lebanon. David eventually gave back to the community, lecturing at his alma mater, George Mason University, providing students different points of view on politics and the conflict in the Middle East. Throughout, his support for the US was unwavering- even when it put him squarely at odds with many others in the Arab American community- me included.

As diverging as our politics may be, in all fairness, neither I nor any fellow Virginian should oppose David’s campaign for some bigoted charges about his background and certainly not his religious affiliation. Anyone who does so implicitly threatens our constitution much more than what is being falsely alleged David’s candidacy does. I am reminded by Virginia’s Statute for Religious Freedom, written by one of its greatest sons, Thomas Jefferson:

"... no man shall be compelled to frequent or support any religious worship, place, or ministry whatsoever, nor shall be enforced, restrained, molested, or burthened in his body or goods, nor shall otherwise suffer on account of his religious opinions or belief; but that all men shall be free to profess, and by argument to maintain, their opinion in matters of religion, and that the same shall in no wise diminish, enlarge, or affect their civil capacities."
 
If some may disagree with David Ramadan, then let it be over his politics not where he comes from or his religious beliefs. It is not the Virginian or American way; and I must say David Ramadan has earned both of these colors as much as the next guy.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

An Interesting Viewpoint of Syrians Toward Steve Jobs

As the Syrian crackdown continues and reaches almost 3000 victims, the death of Apple's Steve Jobs, whose biological father is a Syrian from Homs, caused a stir and an interesting reaction. Here's a Reuters article:


http://news.yahoo.com/arabs-embrace-steve-jobs-syrian-connection-125707077.html

Monday, August 29, 2011

Gadhafi: A Shame for the whole World to Bear

A mere few months ago Gadhafi and his family could boast of Billions (with a capital B) and outright ownership of Libya. He is now a worthless fugitive running for his life, two of his sons having reportedly lost theirs, and many members of his family having fled a burning nation. The question that begs itself is whether or not it had to be this way?
Gadhafi could have negotiated a settlement and walked away with Billions, but didn't. Instead he chose to stay put and fight against the most powerful of global military coalitions- NATO- with fledgling mercenaries from poor neighboring African countries. The reasons for this seemingly irrational behaviour are not for certain. One could contemplate a complete detachment from the factual- with those around him preferring not to state the obvious to him. His ludicrous and vociferous sons claiming inevitable victory tend to support this theory. Perhaps over the years, the regime's upper echelons had begun believing their own web of lies and parabole.

Then again his choice may shed light on the theory that he is indeed a madman- a Neroesque sort of character who preferred to watch Libya burn and laugh at the spectacle even if he himself inevitably forgoes all the riches and gets killed in the process. After all faced with the choice of walking away with Billions or almost certain death for himself and members of his family, who in their right state of mind would choose the later? Better yet, who would choose it after seeing what had happened to Saddam and his sons, Mubarak and his sons, Ben Ali and his family ... And yet as irrational as it may seem, to men like Gadhafi, the rationality of preferring to live in obscurity to them would be the irrational choice- that is over dying in the limelight, even if it means taking their whole family down with them.

Regardless of the reasons, a choice Gadhafi made, and his family and him will pay for it. The world should not feel sorry for the whole lot. What the civilized world should feel sorry for are the lives of all those innocent civilians that have been lost as a result of his actions, and for having allowed such a man to rule his nation unopposed for so long. As mass graves resulting from his regime begin to be unearthed, it will be a shame not only for Libya to bear, but the world at large- especially those nations, which were affected by his violence and yet continued to deal with him. That perhaps was the greatest shame of all.

US 'wasted $30bn on Afghanistan and Iraq' over decade (BBC Article)

Here is an interesting article on waste in the Middle East in the Afghan and Iraqi wars written by Kim Ghattas from the BBC. What a shame for the US and what a shame for the region. Not the proper first step to take after years of abuse by the autocrats. Hopefully, there will be lessons learnt going forward:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14712172

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Egypt Trial of Mubarak Begins: A BBC Video

The following BBC article and video of Mubarak on a stretcher inside of a caged courthouse being tried for his misdeeds is surreal and points to the inevitable fruits of the Egyptian revolution's labor. Anyone thinking that the temporrary Egyptian military junta will dare attempt to create a post-Mubarak neo-dictatorship should think again. These scenes are earily similar to those of Saddam a handful years ago (who together with most of his clique were summarily executed) but with one major difference. The trial was not brought about by a foreign power and an imposed democracy but rather by an organic and home-grown revolution- one whose potential recurrence is bound to continue sending shivers down the spine of any overly ambitious dictatorial Egyptian or Arab leader.

Fearful of the same fate, and as ultimately futile as it may prove, we should expect incumbent Arab dictators to want to attempt to hold on even more to their power- and that inlcudes Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Qadhafi, and Syria's Assad.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14382997

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Until When Will Situation Persist In Hama?

It is one thing for a government to want to restore order. It is another for it to declare war on it's people for demonstrating. While no one can be 100% certain of what is going on in Syria, what is for sure is that the Syrian regime does not help its cause by sending tanks into residential areas of Hama, a city almost wiped out a couple of decades ago. Nor does it help its cause by denying the international press access. Is it not high time the international community did something more than just pay lip service to the Syrian people?

Here is a recent BBC article about the current state of affairs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14360027

'Christian terrorist'? Norway case strikes debate: AP Article

This is an interesting article by the Associated Press, which highlights the introspection currently occuring in the West as a result of Norway's terrorist attacks, which seem to have been concocted by one of its own. If anything, it proves that religious extremism, bigotry, and terrorism are not limited to any single creed, color, or nationality and spares no one of its pains. What a shame that Norway and its people had to become its latest tragic victims. I fear, it may not be the last ...


Thursday, July 21, 2011

Trying to Figure Out Social Media: An Article

The role that technology has been playing in the Middle East uprisings is indisputable. Where stifling the media was a common regional practice by the autocratic regimes only a few years ago, Chapter 4 of the book details emerging technological realities and how technology has been opposing and indeed breaking down all forms of censure.

This phenomenon is not purely an Arab one, of course, and the influence is being felt globally. Following is an interesting article I came across that highlights how even resource-rich and technologically advanced nations and organizations in the West- such as the Pentagon- are grappling with it.  

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Somalia: Yet Another Tragic Arab Story

As Libya, Syria, Yemen and Egypt battle for democratic survival, Somalia is facing a battle even more grave- that of famine. Approximately 1.5 million Somalis are currently teetering on the brink. Interestingly enough and rather counter-intuitively, according to recent reports, this famine is not due solely to climactic conditions nor to a shortage of food. Rather, it is due to a failed state that has been unable to provide for its citizens- even when it has received aid that is earmarked for that purpose. The world is now scampering trying to figure out solutions to alleviate the Somalian people's hunger.

If nothing else Somalia is a sad case study for the entire region of what falling into anarchy and disorder would look like and what it could result in.


Friday, July 8, 2011

On the Impossibility of Reforming Incumbent Arab Regimes

In the research leading up to this book, it became clear to me that Arab regimes cannot reform– even if they needed to- because it is essentially a self-inflicting exercise. There are multiple justifications for this:

First, they stand to lose the most from change because it was essentially a zero sum game (what society needs, they have to give up in concessions).

Second, assuming the regime still manages to find the goodwill to reform, skyrocketing entropic rates within the regimes due to increasing corruption, nepotism, and massive government payrolls makes it all but impossible to carry through any serious reform without alienating others within the ruling regime- especially the hardliners. The best one could hope for from them is a semblance of reform with carefully paced change. Indeed, by making change eternally slow, their hope was to ultimately avoid it. It didn’t work; and I argued as far back as 2005 through published Op Eds that it wasn’t change that needed to be paced, but rather pace that needed to be changed.

Third, is the age of most of these regimes, most of which have been around for decades. These are not the vibrant catalysts needed, nor will they be willing to take risks that could come back and undermine their own power.

Fourth, they simply do not have the know how (let alone inclination); and those who do have generally been either jailed, executed, or otherwise banished.

I found it quite laughable at the apex of the uprising in Egypt to see some suggesting that a regime such as Mubarak’s should be expected to carry out any meaningful reform. Not only was the man an octogenarian, he had been power for three decades and not done it. The regime did try on some fronts in the middle of the last decade, especially on the economic front. But it made sure it kept things in check, especially on the political front. When it finally realized the magnitude of the problem following the January 2011 uprising, it was too late ...

There is really no reason to believe that fundamentally hollow Arab regimes such as Syria, Libya, and Yemen could possibly hope to fare any better.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Larry Diamond on Democratic Emergence in Southeast Asia in the 1990's

This is a very relevant quote by Stanford's Larry Diamond as referenced by Thomas Friedman in the Lexus And The Olive Tree, Anchor Books, 2000, p.g. 187-188. Larry Diamond has written extensively on Democracy. His latest book The Spirit of Democracy discusses the  desire even among poor societies to adopt democracy and also tackles why democracy has receded somewhat in places like Venezuela and Russia.


“The Southeast Asian leaders were telling their people for most of the post-World War II era: ‘You give me your freedom and you keep your mouth shut, and I will give you the opportunity to get rich’. It was easy for people to be apolitical when all boats were rising, and people felt that they could leave political management to someone else without harming their economic well being. Well that worked fine for about thirty years, but then the growth collapsed and the distribution of riches, welfare, and benefits collapsed too. And people realized that they could not leave politics to someone else. So the bargain breaks down. As a result, what the people have said to their governments in Thailand, Indonesia, Korea… is that if you have taken away our growth, if the state cannot deliver on the previous bargain, then we want a new bargain and in this bargain we are going to have a much bigger say in how the system operates. But because we have a bigger say, we will be ready to make bigger sacrifices while the system is reformed and gets up to speed. And that is why they are ready to exhibit considerably more patience in the face of economic suffering than many people expected. Because their politics has been opened and democratized, they at least have more of a feeling that they are working through these problems with a degree of equality. They become part owners of the game

Saturday, July 2, 2011

On Democracy by US Founding Fathers

On this the 235th anniversary of the United States revolution, which reintroduced democracy to the world after a very long absence, it is befitting to study and quote some of the salient founding fathers:


"Democratical states must always feel before they can see: it is this that makes their governments slow, but the people will be right at last... When a people shall have become incapable of governing themselves, and fit for a master, it is of little consequence from what quarter he comes."
- George Washington, Letter to Marquis de Lafayette, July 25, 1785 and April 28, 1788 respectively.


"It has ever been my hobby-horse to see rising in America an empire of liberty, and a prospect of two or three hundred millions of freemen, without one noble or one king among them. You say it is impossible. If I should agree with you in this, I would still say, let us try the experiment, and preserve our equality as long as we can."
- John Adams, To Count Starsfield, February 3, 1786.


"I have no fear that the result of our experiment will be that men may be trusted to govern themselves without a master. Could the contrary of this be proved, I should conclude either that there is no God or that He is a malevolent being."
- Thomas Jefferson, Letter to David Hartley, 1787. 


"We may define a [democratic] republic ... as a government which derives all its powers directly or indirectly from the great body of the people, and is administered by persons holding their offices during pleasure, for a limited period, or during good behavior. It is essential to such government that it be derived from the great body of the society, not from an inconsiderable proportion, or a favored class of it."
- James Madison, The Federalist Papers, 1788

Morocco Overwhelmingly Approves Curbs on King's Powers

A good article about the one and seemingly only Arab monarch so far who seems to have accepted true fundamental reform and kicked it off with a constitutional referendum. Interesting to see democratic hunger manifesting itself with a staggering 72.6% voter turn-out. 

Those in Morocco calling for more instead of rejecting the referendum should take solace and invest their energy pressing forward with making sure that the reforms are truthfully deployed. 

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/9554-morocco-overwhelmingly-approves-curbs-on-king-s-powers

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Of Princes and Paupers in the Arab Spring

In recent news and analysis (the most recent of which was published in The New York Times), Saudi Arabia has reportedly been trying to fend off the region’s revolutions with its own counter-revolution. “We’re sending a message that monarchies are not where this is happening,” Prince Waleed bin Talal al-Saud, of the Saudi Royal family was quoted as saying rather assuredly. “We are not trying to get our way by force, but to safeguard our interests.” This has been followed up by reports that Saudi Arabia has been spending Billions in Egypt, Yemen, and Bahrain trying to keep a semblance of what once was.

If these reports were true, it would be rather amusing to think that Saudi Arabia actually thinks it can do anything to reverse the concurrent revolutions in the region at a time when the world at large has come to the realization that it is irreversible. Even the United States during the last days of Mubarak’s reign abandoned its long-time ally in favor of what it saw as inevitably going to be a popular victory. And yet some in Saudi Arabia rather Don Quixotesquely appear to believe they can fight the windmill of change.

Perhaps this optimism comes from believing that all that has to be done is simply repeat the policies of the 1960’s when the kingdom vehemently opposed Nasser’s and other populist movements in the region. This rather simplistic associational argument is oblivious of the regional sea change that has occurred over the past 40 years from a geopolitical, geo-economic, geo-social, and technological standpoint. The world today is quite different. There is no longer a communist threat, meaning the Arab people themselves in their revolutions are not against the interests of the West as some Arab communist revolutionaries may have been back in the 1960’s. On the contrary, the youth leading charge see themselves very much a part of a globalized world. They seek the same freedoms the United States and other Western nations enjoy. The world has been sympathetic to their struggle. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia has little to offer in soft power terms.

Geo-economically and geo-socially, the region itself is in a shambles and in need of massive reform. The Arab population continues to burgeon and is in dire need of opportunities and jobs- something which even Saudi Arabia with all of its endowed resources has not figured out for its own population. Official Saudi reports place unemployment at 10%, which is considered a gross underestimate of actual, especially among the youth. But even if we took the Saudi figure at face value, it means there are hundreds of thousands of jobless Saudi youths with no future and no voice to ask for any. Saudi Arabia’s own economic woes are not an example with which it can lead the region. Neither are its social ills. Half of its population (women) is not allowed to work fully yet (granted there has been recent improvement), and the other half due to numbing government subsidies may not have enough incentive to. On every trip to Saudi, one indelibly reads reports of the need for Saudization, a term used to for the government policy aiming to replace foreign expat labor with indigenous Saudi workers. While it is a good policy, it nonetheless points to the structural problems the kingdom is facing. This situation can hardly be exported to a region so direly in need of micro-productivity, entrepreneurial activity, and employment opportunities.

And finally on the technological side, any form of censorship has been muffled due to advances in Satellite communication, mobile telephony, and the Internet. In the book I mention some anecdotes from within Saudi on the very subject highlighting the futility of any form of censorship in this day and age.

And yet, a report recently listed Prince Waleed bin Talal as the most powerful Arab in the globe. Perhaps this power tends to give a person a sense of confidence to tackle any problem. Unfortunately, the Arab region’s calamity is one problem neither Waleed nor the Kingdom as a whole with all their resources can oppose let alone resolve. Nor can any other nation for that matter. In fact, in the book I argue that each Arab nation will have to resolve its problems one citizen at a time giving them self-determination but also exerting self-sufficiency. For that to happen indigenous reform is what is needed not imposed stifling. Saudi Arabia, which also needs internal reform, would stand to benefit if it realized that it cannot begin reforming its own society by impeding everyone else from reforming their own.

Ironically, in the very same report, which listed Bin Talal as the most Powerful Arab, Wael Ghonim, the Egyptian Google mid-manager credited with enabling the Egyptian uprising, was listed as the second most powerful. This has led some to conclude that power and money still rule. Actually, it doesn't. For in the region, there are only a dozen or more Billionaires such as Waleed, but there are potentially 300 million Waels out there.

Waleed would be better served not to bet against the Arab revolutions, nor spend his money impeding the wheels of change and the Waels of the Arab world. Instead, he should try to find ways to invest in reform within the kingdom, which is direly needed to improve the livelihood of the Saudi people. The way for a stable and prosperous Saudi Kingdom is to reform internally and not to oppose it internationally.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Can Technology End Conflict?

Technology as the book outlines is a human development tendency that is irreversible and global in nature. In the Arab World, technology for better or worse has been playing a major role in human development for the past 30 years. The book details some of these tendencies and discusses the effects that they are indelibly having on youth in particular and the region as a whole.


The following BBC article is further proof of things to come:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13525440

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

New cracks form in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood


This is a very interesting article about what is occurring within Egypt's Muslim brotherhood post Mubarak. It vindicates one of the book's Chapter 8 arguments that essentially Islamist parties in themselves have different currents and the best way to draw out their mainstream and moderate tones is through democratization and dialogue not impending face-off and stifling.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110626/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt

Can the Syrian Regime Overcome the Uprising?

There are many who believe the Assad's Syrian regime has what it takes to overcome the current crisis. "It has many hidden cards still to play," they claim. The Syrian regime itself on regional TV stations seems confident it can. The problem with this thinking is that it disregards four key realities (elements) that I discuss in the book.

First the geo-political situation. The regime's action over the past two months seems to indicate that it is indeed stuck in a different era. During the 1970's, Syria was surrounded with autocrats, supported by a mighty Soviet Union, and very much facing an expansionist Israel. The regime thrived. But none of these factors exist anymore. Syria is now surrounded by emerging albeit fledgling democracies, its major benefactor the Soviet Union disintegrated two decades ago, and Israel's expansionist policies excepting settlements have all but ceased. All Syria can count on now is Iran's support. Unfortunately, this may prove more a liability than an asset both internally and internationally. Besides, Iran itself has enough to cope with facing a serious embargo and dealing with its own internal turmoil.

Secondly and thirdly, the geo-social and geo-economic situation have also substantially deteriorated. Syria has ballooned to a population of almost 25 million most of whom are youth. Unfortunately, the country's archaic economic structure based on an expired centralized planning model has failed. The few reforms that have been promised and the fewer still that have been implemented are nowhere near what is needed for the country to get back on its feet. With the little oil it had having almost dried up, the current regime has no immediate remedies let alone ideas of how to resolve the current economic calamity. The longer the uprising carries on affecting direcly needed tourism and trade, the worse things are likely to get.

Fourthly, even though the regime has tried its best to muffle any news coming out of the country, technology has managed to keep a link between the people and the outside world disseminating news of the regime's violence. Social media connectivity, mobile connectivity, and satellite have all kept the protestors in touch between themselves and with the outside world. Short of calamitously shutting down all telephone and internet communications, the regime can really do nothing about this.

And so the question I usually ask those who theorize that the regime has "many hidden cards left to play", is what exactly are these cards? The regime has shown its hand to its people and the world at large and no one likes it. Ironically even Putin, a product of the Soviet era and a leader not known to mince words, pointing to Syria recently stated, “In the modern world it is impossible to use political instruments of 40 years ago.”

These are indeed changing times where all cards are out in the open, and bluffing quite futile. The sooner the Syrian regime and its mouth pieces realize this, the better it is for all. Change is inevitable.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

The Arab World Needs a Marshall Plan

The smartest commentary from the West that I have read in a long time. Lets just hope that the West pays attention because if it doesn't, it will most certainly come back and bite.

Commentary by Franco Frattinni, Italy's Foreign Minister:

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/do-you-support-a-marshall-plan-for-the-arab-world/

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

An Imperfect Democracy is What Makes it a Perfect One

Having studied profoundly the American democracy, I find its genius was not in its original design (notwithstanding its brilliance), but rather in its ability to continuously reinvent and realign itself with its north star- the interests of its citizens.

A democracy, very much like a plane, is statically imperfect and weighs heavy. Its perfection comes only when it is in flight, weighing as much as feather, with all its elements in harmonious balance, and transporting it to a destination it will never reach.

An Interesting Quote ...

“Under dictatorial rule, people need not think- need not choose- need not make up their minds or give their consent. All they need to do is to follow. This had been a bitter lesson learnt from Philippine political experience of not so long ago. By contrast, a democracy cannot survive without civic virtue… The political challenge for people around the world today is not just to replace authoritarian regimes by democratic ones. Beyond this, it is to make democracy work for ordinary people ..."

- Former Phillipines President Ramos

Monday, May 30, 2011

Lessons from Soviet Hungary for Arab Nations with Hardline Regimes

Democratizing a nation while facing hardline regimes has never been easy. As the Syrian, Yemeni, and Libyan regimes seem entrenched and not willing to let go of power to the people, perhaps they can benefit from recent experiences from Eastern Europe, of which Hungary stands out as a good example.

As the Soviet Empire began disintegrating in the late 1980’s, stifled Hungarians, who had been ruled by the Communists for far too many decades had grown tired of the single-party system. While democratic opposition groups were splintered, by 1989 most agreed that the priority was seeing their political system opened. They began pressuring the communist regime and succeeded in coalescing thousands of demonstrators in the streets to pressure the incumbent communist regime. The communist government tried to control and channel the emerging dialogue, but failed as the democratic parties refused to acquiesce to a multitude of political offers, bribes, and divide and rule tactics. Ideologically disparate, the opposition parties decided to maintain a united democratic front.

Over the next several months, the communist regime itself began feeling the pressure from within with some party members taking a more reformist position. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the split ended up occurring within the ruling party. A posterior shuffle within the communist party eventually led to a more reformist party leadership, and this in turn paved the way for a roundtable discussion with the opposition.

In her insightful book, The Walls Came Tumbling Down, Gale Stokes writes, “By mid-1989, free elections were no longer an issue in Hungary, but almost everything else was. During the roundtable discussions the [ruling] party concentrated on economic problems, hoping to get the opposition to share responsibility for a deteriorating economic situation and for unpopular reforms that would be needed to correct it. The opposition insisted on presenting political demands, such as eliminating Workers Guards, which were an armed force in every factory, and getting party cells out of the workplace. After three months of difficult negotiations, in September 1989 the conferees agreed to overhaul the legal system, depoliticize the army, and cut the size and competence of the Workers Guards.”

One contentious issue did remain and it was whether Hungary would have a strong
President voted for by the people- which the Communists wanted- or whether it would have a weaker one voted for by the parliament. This issue could not be solved by the roundtable discussion, but rather saw a referendum called for, which out of four million votes, saw the latter group come on top by a mere 6,100 votes! The parliamentary elections that followed early in 1990, saw the people massively vote against the Communists giving them only 8.5% of the parliamentary seats. The new parliament proceeded to vote for a non-communist President.


Hungary’s brief case provides several lessons to the impending transformation occurring throughout the Middle East. First, the ruling regime as expected tries to maintain its powers by attempting to institutionalize the single party rule [communism for instance] and other trickery, such as the “Workers Guards”, who typically are not there to protect the workers as much as to spy on them. The opposition groups did not fall for it and insisted on political reform before any economic reform under the single party system. This was smart for two reasons. The first is it kept the pressure on the regime. Second, if the economic situation got any better the incumbent totalitarian regime would feel even less likely to leave power.

Secondly, as a reaction to firm political opposition, the ruling regime itself began to see different strands emerge within its own rank and file. Hardliners were left with an impossible dilemma. If they imposed their power, it aggravated the situation on the streets as is happening in Syria and Libya. If however they allowed to reformers to emerge within the party, then they knew there was no hope either. Their days became numbered one way or the other.

Thirdly, once the ruling regime realized that change was imminent, it preferred to negotiate with the democratic proponents than stamp out the protests. This saved Hungary from an even larger calamity. In Libya, it appears Gadhafi has issued an “over my dead body” edict. His end may be near as a result of it. In Syria, Assad still has the chance to remedy the situation if he introduces some reformers, but even then, in all likelihood his regime’s days are numbered.

And finally, if negotiations with democratizers are launched as they have been in Egypt, while they may be difficult and will take time, they will inevitably lead to the peaceful emergence of liberalization and democratization as they did in Hungary against a regime must more powerful than any of the Arab ones.

The people are on the right side of history. Patience and perseverance will pay off… inevitably.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Lebanon's Liberation Tour: Ali Himmadeh’s Khiyam

On Lebanon's Liberation anniversary, I thought it appropriate to share the following story, which I wrote back in the summer of 2000 ...


The wind was blowing – as if on a mission to vacuum clean the place of its history. The sun thought otherwise and shone brightly wanting to expose its notoriety for all to see. Windows of abandoned posts incessantly screeched open only to come to a thundering close interrupting a serenity begging to be heard. I was in Khiyam prison in the South of Lebanon.

Three weeks earlier a friend and reporter had been an eyewitness to infamous Khiyam prison’s liberation by Lebanese villagers and resistance: As the Israeli army began retreating from the different Lebanese areas expecting their Lebanese proxies to take over their positions, the Southern villagers, resistance, and returning refugees started marching on evacuated villages craving to return to their homes and land. In the case of the village of Khiyam, this march took a more poignant significance, as it indelibly implied entering and freeing the renowned and feared Khiyam prison. As the liberators reached the doors of the prison, the remaining guards threatened to shoot at the crowd. One of the liberators took the lead and asked the guards to leave in peace because they had no way of defending themselves against the masses. The guards hesitated. The crowd appealed to their senses. Soon, the guards began feeling the pressure. They eventually accepted to leave if they could be brought a car and assured a safety route. Their wish attained, they left the prison to the liberators, who marched in shouting and screaming. The prisoners locked in their cells did not know what was happening outside. They mistook events for Israelis coming to hurt or kill them before abandoning the prison. "Allahou Akbar" cries were heard all over the prison as the prisoners awaited their moment of deliverance. The liberators scrambled for anything they could find to break the outer locks left closed by the fleeing guards. Rocks, steel bars, anything they could lay their hands on. Soon they reached the cell doors. Tears flowed on both sides of the prison bars. Arms extended to assure the prisoners- some of whom fell to their knees overwhelmed. Emotions pushed on the liberators. Finally, the doors broke open… The prisoners were raised on the shoulders of the liberators ... That evening, no prison cries of torture or pain were heard by the town. Khiyam slept in peace.

Catching a cab in Beirut, I had one thing on my mind. I needed to go to the South to see the recently liberated Lebanese lands especially Qana and Khiyam. While I was not from the South, throughout the war years, affinity and admiration had grown for that part of my homeland. I needed to replace feelings with presence.

The road that the taxi took to Khiyam had given few if any signs of its notoriety. It could have been just about any other road leading to this or that Lebanese village. But it didn't of course. It lead straight to a prison that had epitomized two decades of Israeli injustice over Lebanon and in particular it’s South. As we arrived, a soft spoken young man wearing a shy smile and a resistance cap guided us to where we could park. We then proceeded to walk uphill for about half a kilometer where we were told was the entrance to the prison. There, a few men sat unobstructively on the side. Their bushy beards exposed a defiant manly demeanor. I asked to take a photo with them. Some of them respectfully declined, others covered their faces. All urged me to take pictures of the prison instead. It was humbling to see those that had accomplished this feat preferred to stay out of the limelight.

Walking into the prison gates, were guard rooms to the left. Interestingly, someone had made sure that the names of the guards that had been on duty were posted on a cardboard, lest they be forgotten. Sadly, they all seemed Lebanese names. The Israelis had made sure others did their dirty work for them. At the center of the prison was a courtyard with two high concrete posts connected at the top by a concrete beam with protruding steel hooks – to be used for torture or hanging. On this day, a cotton dummy dressed in an Israeli uniform was hanging, with barbed wire at the base making sure not even he could escape his fate. Due to the howling wind, the dummy was circling around with the clothes being gnawed at and punctured by the barbed wire. As my mind wondered how many real Lebanese had found themselves in the very same predicament, a man approached me.

Ali Himmadeh was an average height but thin man, probably in his mid-thirties. He carried a light beard and wore jeans and a striped shirt. He asked if I’d like to be shown around. “I do not expect anything in return,” he continued, “I was a prisoner here myself and I do this so that my people will not forget what we all went through.” As much as his story begged to be told, his honesty and easy demeanor beckoned me to accept. Ali had been incarcerated in 1992 because he had refused to aid and ebbed the Israelis. He would spend the next 7 years in Khiyam and not released until 1998 as a result of a prisoner exchange between the Lebanese resistance and Israel.

Ali guided us inside the first quarter and through a long thin corridor to the right of which were the cells. Each cell was about two meters wide, 10 meters long, and 3 meters high. Until 1995, the prison had only isolated cells, but the Red Cross had made the Israelis open up the rooms to these dimensions. Thus each of these rooms which housed some 6 or seven inmates had been 6 or seven cells prior to 1995. The rooms were dimly lit with a damp smell. At the end of the rooms, was a bathroom providing no minimum amount of privacy. Food was given through the bars and included meager portions: one egg with a piece of bread in the morning and potatoes for lunch. Ali explained how drinking water used to be bargained for. Anytime there was a shortage, the prisoners would go on hunger strikes. On this issue, Ali grinned. “We usually won these battles with more drinking water delivered.”

I asked Ali how it was the first few days in prison for him. He explained that the first 28 days were usually spent between solitary confinement and interrogation. They would put them in a room and during the day incessantly interrogate them. If answers were not obtained, they would use electric currents applied through the fingers or belts and other leather items to lash the prisoners. If they still received no information, they would then take them to a room with another prisoner. The other “prisoner” would be an undercover agent who would try to extract information by telling them some made-up story of his own resistance activities in the hope that they would fall in the trap by admitting some of their own experiences or information. “Now, if this method did not work,” Ali continued, “they would take us to the 'Amoud (the post) where the prisoner would have his head covered with a thick blue head cover, and then would be hung from the post with police-like hand shackles feet not allowed to touch the ground. Beatings, threats, and abuses would follow. Ali told us that once the jailers had been watching some boxing match on television while a prison inmate was blindfolded and hanging from the post. Once the match was over, the jailers came out and started practicing their own punches. "Five men I know of lost their lives on this post," Ali sighed looking down.

As we moved along the corridors adjoining the cells, several of the visitors that had begun following us began dropping out feeling either claustrophobic or unable to bear the stench. I tend to think perhaps this uncensored and grim reality was too much. Unfortunately, it would get worse as the tour progressed, for then, Ali guided us to the quarter of solitary confinement cells. In this quarter, cells were a meter wide, a meter long, and a meter and some high. Sleeping could only be done in sitting position. Mattresses were a convenience prisoners were not always given; nor were bathrooms, with buckets serving as convenient replacements. Prisoners could stay anywhere between one and twelve weeks in this type of confinement. Ali took us to the room where he had been placed the first four weeks. He then showed us the spot where he had etched his name using a rusted nail that he had found by accident.

By the end of the tour, I wanted to ask Ali a million other questions. I mean here was a man who had suffered a lot of injustice from his own people and from Israel, and yet displayed no visible signs of hatred. I wanted to know why and how he managed to overcome his ordeal. I wanted to know how he felt about people that had robbed him of a decade of his life...

Unfortunately, I also knew that it was important for him to share his story with many new arrivals. And so I bid Ali farewell …

As he turned his back and walked away, I could not help but think of the sacrifices that people in the South such as Ali had to face and for so long. I also could not help but admire the courage that he and the other men and women had mustered to tell their story in its ugliest truths, and within the very same walls that had and will likely continue to torture them for many years. These are brave souls. These are good souls. They are Lebanon's true heroes.

Source: Wissam S. Yafi records

The Roaring Sound of Silence in Lebanon

I found this article, which I had written for the DailyStar back in 2005 describing what arguably was the first revolution that occured in the Arab world ...


Last week, government loyalists thought that their demonstration - the one organized and led by Hizbullah - had forced the opposition into quiet submission. The subsequent reappointment of Omar Karami to head a new government - notwithstanding his humiliating departure a couple of weeks earlier - was meant to be the final nail in the opposition's coffin.

Few in Lebanon's already precarious leadership, or the one in Damascus for that matter, had any clue as to what such behavior would lead to: a massive gathering on Monday whose magnitude arguably has not been seen in the Arab world since the days of Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser. But who was it that reacted? Why did they react? What is different about them, and more importantly what do they want?

Unlike Hizbullah's organized demonstration, the opposition rally on Monday was a grassroots effort, national, and not party based. It mobilized that segment of the Lebanese population that had hitherto rarely been driven into the streets - the silent majority.

The Lebanese silent majority is not sectarian in nature. It represents Lebanon's entire social and regional spectrum. Demographically, it includes people of both sexes and of all ages. Lebanon's young make up a large proportion of this majority, which also embraces all economic classes. It is fairly educated and developed and understands and is concerned with Lebanon's economic predicament and the debt threat hanging over the country's head. While the silent majority may not be wealthy, it is ambitious and realizes that for any economic recovery to be sustainable there needs to be political and economic stability, coupled with hard work and sacrifice. In the recent past, it has been willing to quietly pay its fair share to ensure such objectives.

For the most part, the silent majority is politically neutral - and until now many thought apathetic. It watched boisterous leaders parade by but hardly ever moved. It does not support any single party in Lebanon because Lebanon's parties are splintered and sectarian in nature. The silent majority prefers nationalists, and Lebanon's sectarian system hinders this.

Internationally, while it may believe in certain causes, the silent majority has etched into its memory the bitter experiences of the Lebanese war and the price Lebanon paid for shouldering the causes of others. No longer swayed by regional sloganeering, it has become practical enough to realize that the country can no longer afford to be a proxy in regional wars nor a confrontation point with Israel. And while Lebanon's silent majority may wish to avoid signing a separate peace treaty with Israel, it does not advocate war with it either.

Why did this silent majority move? Quite simply because it was tired. It was tired of seeing moderate and visionary leaders assassinated, while its fortunes were at the mercy of visionless officials appointed by outsiders who acted only on instructions. It was tired of having a clueless government that did not represent the majority's interests, particularly at such a crucial time in Lebanon's history when many dark clouds are gathering. And those in the majority were tired of having to tell their children that it was best for them to leave their nation in search of a better future.

While some may claim that Lebanon is unique, the national demonstration on Monday showed that the silent majority was no different than its counterparts elsewhere in the world - for example in Chile, where people brought down the all-powerful regime of Augusto Pinochet, having tired of his repressive police state and self-serving and obsolete security warnings. Lebanon is not different from Eastern Europe, where societies brought down oppressive and manipulative governments that had led them to economic ruin, while their neighbors in the West were well on their way to economic prosperity. And, it is not so different than Iraq, which in the January elections bravely showed the world how powerful the voice of freedom could be - even as voters faced the direst of personal risks.

Lebanon's silent majority is not unique, for it wants the same thing that all humans everywhere want: dignity, freedom and peace. It has a vision of a Lebanon that is economically ambitious, entrepreneurial and prosperous. It will follow those offering this optimistic vision; and it will dwarf those who wish to bind Lebanon to its dark past through strategies that undermine this vision. The silent majority in Lebanon has spoken with a voice that has silenced everyone else; and in this has taken Lebanon's destiny into its own hands. Those in power had better yield and quickly.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Bin Laden's Legacy: Che or Hitler

A recent US article wondered why the Islamic World has been so quiet concerning the killing of Bin Laden.

In the West, the case seems rather clear cut. While more knowledgeable analysts will admit that we in the United States in a way helped create the Bin Laden phenomenon by training and supporting his initial activities in Afghanistan during the Soviet era, most no doubt see him purely in light of the 911 calamity- an abominable figure that will go down in history as having committed a heinous crime. Hence his death caused celebrations and dancing in the streets of Washington DC, rarely seen by other occurrences much more significant in geopolitical terms- such as the fall of the Soviet Empire for instance.

While no one in the Islamic and Arab region is likely to deny the gravity of Bin Laden's 911 crime (although some conspiracy thinkers still manage to doubt its authenticity), they see it from a lens not as acute as the crime itself- as horrendously tragic as it were. Having lived their own history, their lens is a bit wider, encompassing other elements in the overall picture. What are some of these elements? First and foremost the autocratic regimes in the region and the injustices they have committed towards their people for decades. Second, Western real politik, which is seen as having turned a blind eye and ruthlessly used the region for its own geopolitical and geo-ecomomic interests. Others see Bin Laden's Islamic militant brand itself as a revolutionary response to incompetence and corruption not unlike some religious reformational movements that happened during other periods in history- albeit few would wish or even contemplate having a Taliban-style governing system. And finally, some see Bin Laden for better or worse as having been a catalyst who forced the region to daringly demand what it had never dared to and face-up to who it had never faced up to. They ask, if regional regimes and their Western backers have justified their means for their Near East regional ends killing millions of innocent in the process, wasn't Bin Laden essentially guilty of the same?

And so the quiet acquiescence of the Arab region in a way may be  introspectional. While feeling ashamed at all the pain and suffering that Bin laden had caused, there may be a lingering sympathy related to what he was trying to attain- a breakup of the vicious cycle that had incumbent autocratic regimes and the West colluding at the expense of the region's people themselves. That the break did eventually occur with the US's bold invasion and forceful democratization of Iraq and more recently the Arab world's uprisings may vindicate this argument albeit in itself eventually making Bin Laden a rather irrelevant figure. One Emirati Professor may have summed it up nicely by stating "Bin Laden died in Egypt before being killed in Pakistan."

From a regional perspective, Bin Laden as a historical figure may very well end up going down in history as having been more a Che Guevara-type of figure than a Serbia's Milosevic, Ruwanda's Kabuka, let alone a Stalin or a Hitler. They may not be willing to admit this just about yet. Hence the quiet.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

A Splintering Terrorism

In September of 1993, I happened to be in Medellin, Colombia of all places. I recall quite well it was a very wet and rainy day in what was known at the time as the drug capital of the world. That morning one of the most wanted criminals in the world, Pablo Escobar, made a phone call to his son. It would cost him his life. At the time, he had been living in hiding for several years and some reports had said he had been sighted as far as Brazil. Others reported that he had completely changed his face. Turns out none of it was true. The phone call was intercepted by the CIA and Colombian intelligence and traced to a regular townhouse in a regular residential area in the middle of Medellin. He had been hiding out in the open all along. An elite Colombian force was dispatched, a firefight ensued, and the infamous Escobar was no more.

This story was almost replicated a couple of days ago. This time the global manhunt was on Bin Laden. Again, a phone call was intercepted by the CIA, but this time an American elite force was dispatched to get the work done and Bin Laden became a part of world's history books.

Some are beginning to question what will happen to Al Qaeda now that Bin Laden is gone. Perhaps looking at what happened to Medellin's infamous drug cartel can shed some light.

Upon Escobar's death, there was a power struggle with other regional cartels (Cali and the Colombian Coast cartels). This led to some infighting that eliminated Escobar's henchmen and closest partners. What eventually ensued were dozens and sometimes even hundreds of mini capos that currently for all intents and purposes do not appear on any major radar. The monopoly of the trade splintered into many pieces. This did not necessarily reduce from the amount of the drug trade per se. What it did reduce, however, is any national sovereignty threat. None of these new drug splinter groups were big enough as Escobar had been to threaten the whole nation. Their mantra of survival became keeping their heads down.

The world of global terrorism is likely to witness something very similar. On the one hand, post Bin Laden Al Qaeda still has henchmen such as Al Zawahiri and others. But none at this point appear to be capable of taking over the mantle nor may have the funding for it- that is unless one of Bin Laden's surviving sons decides to try his luck. As unlikely as this may seem, in that part of the world one never knows... Most likely, however, the organization not unlike the Colombian cartels in the 1990's will splinter into many smaller groups. As a matter of fact this had started occurring even before Bin Laden's death. The reason for this quite simply is geographic coverage. Unable to communicate effectively over such a huge Islamic expanse, the only way for the organization to work was for it to decentralize and it did so. This splintering process is likely to accelerate now that Bin Laden is gone. This may mean two things: First that Al Qaeda is not likely to disappear. Second and more ominously, terrorism is likely to continue.

Interestingly, in the case of drug imports, the United States seems to be resigned to an acceptable range of imports. Completely eradicating drugs has proven to be exorbitant and impractical. The question to ask now is whether or not there would be an "acceptable" equivalent in terms of terrorism?

This is a question only the future can answer, but a democratizing Arab world, which consolidates Arab states and has them responding to the needs of their citizens will certainly prove to be an antidote against a splintered Al Qaeda.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

The Eventual Fate of Arab Dictators and Its Significance

Two recent developments give conflicting messages as to the impending fate of dethroned dictators in the Arab World and its regional democratization implications.

On the one hand, Egypt has had Mubarak and his family under house arrest since his ouster. They are being investigated for both widespread corruption charges as well as ordering the killing of protestors. One Egyptian minister recently went as far as stating that if "ordering the killings charge is proven, it would imply the death penalty". This points to two significant developments: First that the matter is being taken seriously by Egyptian institutions which appear to be following what one would hope is legal due process. Second and more importantly, is that the Egyptian uprising is behind this, because in reality none in the military junta nor the international community would particularly benefit from persecuting the Mubaraks. It is being prodded by the people themselves who are asking for justice and accountability. This bodes well on Egypt and its revolution, which continues to surprise many in its perseverance and wisdom.

On the other hand we have Yemen, where Saleh's departure is being "negotiated" by Saudi Arabia and other GCC members. Essentially, the agreement is a barter exchange: Relinquishing power for immunity from persecution. This agreement, however, does not appear to be supported by the Yemeni people as the sit-ins remain firmly in place after its announcement- with a tendency to increase. The latest news from Yemen is that new crackdowns are meant to force the people to disperse and accept this agreement. This carries potential negative implications for the future institutionalization of democracy in that country. Essentially it attempts to force an expedient state of amnesia on a nation that has suffered at the hands of its dictator for the better part of 30 years. If it is enforced, with time it is bound to come back and bite one way or another. The Yemeni's are demanding what they want- justice and accountability- but are patronizingly being given pocket change by the GCC. Only giving in to their demands in their entirety will be sufficient to quell their massive demonstrations setting them on their way to a functional democracy. Trying to snuff the uprising will backfire sooner or later.

Early steps at institutionalizing democracy, part of which is  holding the dictators accountable, can have massive effects and path dependence trajectories. Now is not the time for expediency nor is it the time to circumvent proper procedures to bring the corrupt and the brutal dictators in the Arab World to justice. The uprisings are demanding it because in their mass wisdom, they realize it has got to be the beginning of a long and arduous healing and democratizing process for their battered societies. This Egypt admirably seems to be doing quite well.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Wanted: Entrepreneurship in the Middle East

Within the context of regional needs going forward, I was recently asked in a lecture why the Lebanese are so entrepreneurial?

The answer is quite simple. They have had to be. Throughout their history they have either been on the fringe of governance or without it.

My grandfather, Ghaleb, who is said to have studied in Boston in the early 20th century returned to a pre-independence Ottoman ruled Lebanon. He was politically prosecuted and had to flee for safety and to be able to make a living. He immigrated to Bombay in Raj India where he established a lucrative textile trade.

My father in his turn studied in England and upon his return started an education business, only to be thwarted by Lebanon's civil war. His creativity could not be stifled, and he moved to a barren Dubai in the early 70's where he continued with his business.

Similarly, I had to leave Lebanon to the US at an early age to finish my education. I started my own high tech business right after school. My son already displays some entrepreneurship traits by teaching his old man new social media trends and faux pas...

Our story is by no means exceptional. We are but another Lebanese family, which for one reason or another has had to turn to its own devices because the setting from which it came did not provide one. We are a product of our environment and I tend to think if it is not yet in our genes, in the very least, it is well engrained in our psyche. We have become what we inevitably have had to.

What has all this got to do with the Middle East's new Realities? It is all about self-reliance. Developed nations are as wealthy as they are because they have managed to maximize the productivity of the micro-elements within their societies making them self-reliant not to mention prosperous. Some falsely claim that large businesses control the United States. While they do exert considerable influence, 80% of employment actually comes from small businesses. According to the US Small Business Administration, there are more than 24 million small businesses in the United States as compared to about 50,000 large ones. The story is very similar in places such as Germany and Japan. Developing places such as Brazil, South Africa, and China point to a similar trend. Self-reliance appears to be a necessary and perhaps sufficient step to prosperity.

This brings us back to the new realities in the Middle East. Unless nations in the Arab World begin to seriously develop their micro elements, these societies will increasingly face difficulties as they democratize and liberalize. Self-sufficiency has got to replace government welfare. The sooner this is realized the less painful the inevitable shift will be. Entrepreneurship may not be the panacea, but it sure as heck is a good option when  government handouts dry up as they are bound to.

Monday, April 25, 2011