There are many who believe the Assad's Syrian regime has what it takes to overcome the current crisis. "It has many hidden cards still to play," they claim. The Syrian regime itself on regional TV stations seems confident it can. The problem with this thinking is that it disregards four key realities (elements) that I discuss in the book.
First the geo-political situation. The regime's action over the past two months seems to indicate that it is indeed stuck in a different era. During the 1970's, Syria was surrounded with autocrats, supported by a mighty Soviet Union, and very much facing an expansionist Israel. The regime thrived. But none of these factors exist anymore. Syria is now surrounded by emerging albeit fledgling democracies, its major benefactor the Soviet Union disintegrated two decades ago, and Israel's expansionist policies excepting settlements have all but ceased. All Syria can count on now is Iran's support. Unfortunately, this may prove more a liability than an asset both internally and internationally. Besides, Iran itself has enough to cope with facing a serious embargo and dealing with its own internal turmoil.
Secondly and thirdly, the geo-social and geo-economic situation have also substantially deteriorated. Syria has ballooned to a population of almost 25 million most of whom are youth. Unfortunately, the country's archaic economic structure based on an expired centralized planning model has failed. The few reforms that have been promised and the fewer still that have been implemented are nowhere near what is needed for the country to get back on its feet. With the little oil it had having almost dried up, the current regime has no immediate remedies let alone ideas of how to resolve the current economic calamity. The longer the uprising carries on affecting direcly needed tourism and trade, the worse things are likely to get.
Fourthly, even though the regime has tried its best to muffle any news coming out of the country, technology has managed to keep a link between the people and the outside world disseminating news of the regime's violence. Social media connectivity, mobile connectivity, and satellite have all kept the protestors in touch between themselves and with the outside world. Short of calamitously shutting down all telephone and internet communications, the regime can really do nothing about this.
And so the question I usually ask those who theorize that the regime has "many hidden cards left to play", is what exactly are these cards? The regime has shown its hand to its people and the world at large and no one likes it. Ironically even Putin, a product of the Soviet era and a leader not known to mince words, pointing to Syria recently stated, “In the modern world it is impossible to use political instruments of 40 years ago.”
These are indeed changing times where all cards are out in the open, and bluffing quite futile. The sooner the Syrian regime and its mouth pieces realize this, the better it is for all. Change is inevitable.
First the geo-political situation. The regime's action over the past two months seems to indicate that it is indeed stuck in a different era. During the 1970's, Syria was surrounded with autocrats, supported by a mighty Soviet Union, and very much facing an expansionist Israel. The regime thrived. But none of these factors exist anymore. Syria is now surrounded by emerging albeit fledgling democracies, its major benefactor the Soviet Union disintegrated two decades ago, and Israel's expansionist policies excepting settlements have all but ceased. All Syria can count on now is Iran's support. Unfortunately, this may prove more a liability than an asset both internally and internationally. Besides, Iran itself has enough to cope with facing a serious embargo and dealing with its own internal turmoil.
Secondly and thirdly, the geo-social and geo-economic situation have also substantially deteriorated. Syria has ballooned to a population of almost 25 million most of whom are youth. Unfortunately, the country's archaic economic structure based on an expired centralized planning model has failed. The few reforms that have been promised and the fewer still that have been implemented are nowhere near what is needed for the country to get back on its feet. With the little oil it had having almost dried up, the current regime has no immediate remedies let alone ideas of how to resolve the current economic calamity. The longer the uprising carries on affecting direcly needed tourism and trade, the worse things are likely to get.
Fourthly, even though the regime has tried its best to muffle any news coming out of the country, technology has managed to keep a link between the people and the outside world disseminating news of the regime's violence. Social media connectivity, mobile connectivity, and satellite have all kept the protestors in touch between themselves and with the outside world. Short of calamitously shutting down all telephone and internet communications, the regime can really do nothing about this.
And so the question I usually ask those who theorize that the regime has "many hidden cards left to play", is what exactly are these cards? The regime has shown its hand to its people and the world at large and no one likes it. Ironically even Putin, a product of the Soviet era and a leader not known to mince words, pointing to Syria recently stated, “In the modern world it is impossible to use political instruments of 40 years ago.”
These are indeed changing times where all cards are out in the open, and bluffing quite futile. The sooner the Syrian regime and its mouth pieces realize this, the better it is for all. Change is inevitable.
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