Larry Diamond on Democratic Emergence in Southeast Asia in the 1990's

This is a very relevant quote by Stanford's Larry Diamond as referenced by Thomas Friedman in the Lexus And The Olive Tree, Anchor Books, 2000, p.g. 187-188. Larry Diamond has written extensively on Democracy. His latest book The Spirit of Democracy discusses the  desire even among poor societies to adopt democracy and also tackles why democracy has receded somewhat in places like Venezuela and Russia.

“The Southeast Asian leaders were telling their people for most of the post-World War II era: ‘You give me your freedom and you keep your mouth shut, and I will give you the opportunity to get rich’. It was easy for people to be apolitical when all boats were rising, and people felt that they could leave political management to someone else without harming their economic well being. Well that worked fine for about thirty years, but then the growth collapsed and the distribution of riches, welfare, and benefits collapsed too. And people realized that they could not leave politics to someone else. So the bargain breaks down. As a result, what the people have said to their governments in Thailand, Indonesia, Korea… is that if you have taken away our growth, if the state cannot deliver on the previous bargain, then we want a new bargain and in this bargain we are going to have a much bigger say in how the system operates. But because we have a bigger say, we will be ready to make bigger sacrifices while the system is reformed and gets up to speed. And that is why they are ready to exhibit considerably more patience in the face of economic suffering than many people expected. Because their politics has been opened and democratized, they at least have more of a feeling that they are working through these problems with a degree of equality. They become part owners of the game”

On Democracy by US Founding Fathers

On this the 235th anniversary of the United States revolution, which reintroduced democracy to the world after a very long absence, it is befitting to study and quote some of the salient founding fathers:


"Democratical states must always feel before they can see: it is this that makes their governments slow, but the people will be right at last... When a people shall have become incapable of governing themselves, and fit for a master, it is of little consequence from what quarter he comes."
- George Washington, Letter to Marquis de Lafayette, July 25, 1785 and April 28, 1788 respectively.


"It has ever been my hobby-horse to see rising in America an empire of liberty, and a prospect of two or three hundred millions of freemen, without one noble or one king among them. You say it is impossible. If I should agree with you in this, I would still say, let us try the experiment, and preserve our equality as long as we can."
- John Adams, To Count Starsfield, February 3, 1786.


"I have no fear that the result of our experiment will be that men may be trusted to govern themselves without a master. Could the contrary of this be proved, I should conclude either that there is no God or that He is a malevolent being."
- Thomas Jefferson, Letter to David Hartley, 1787. 


"We may define a [democratic] republic ... as a government which derives all its powers directly or indirectly from the great body of the people, and is administered by persons holding their offices during pleasure, for a limited period, or during good behavior. It is essential to such government that it be derived from the great body of the society, not from an inconsiderable proportion, or a favored class of it."
- James Madison, The Federalist Papers, 1788

Morocco Overwhelmingly Approves Curbs on King's Powers

A good article about the one and seemingly only Arab monarch so far who seems to have accepted true fundamental reform and kicked it off with a constitutional referendum. Interesting to see democratic hunger manifesting itself with a staggering 72.6% voter turn-out. 

Those in Morocco calling for more instead of rejecting the referendum should take solace and invest their energy pressing forward with making sure that the reforms are truthfully deployed. 

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/9554-morocco-overwhelmingly-approves-curbs-on-king-s-powers

Of Princes and Paupers in the Arab Spring

In recent news and analysis (the most recent of which was published in The New York Times), Saudi Arabia has reportedly been trying to fend off the region’s revolutions with its own counter-revolution. “We’re sending a message that monarchies are not where this is happening,” Prince Waleed bin Talal al-Saud, of the Saudi Royal family was quoted as saying rather assuredly. “We are not trying to get our way by force, but to safeguard our interests.” This has been followed up by reports that Saudi Arabia has been spending Billions in Egypt, Yemen, and Bahrain trying to keep a semblance of what once was.

If these reports were true, it would be rather amusing to think that Saudi Arabia actually thinks it can do anything to reverse the concurrent revolutions in the region at a time when the world at large has come to the realization that it is irreversible. Even the United States during the last days of Mubarak’s reign abandoned its long-time ally in favor of what it saw as inevitably going to be a popular victory. And yet some in Saudi Arabia rather Don Quixotesquely appear to believe they can fight the windmill of change.

Perhaps this optimism comes from believing that all that has to be done is simply repeat the policies of the 1960’s when the kingdom vehemently opposed Nasser’s and other populist movements in the region. This rather simplistic associational argument is oblivious of the regional sea change that has occurred over the past 40 years from a geopolitical, geo-economic, geo-social, and technological standpoint. The world today is quite different. There is no longer a communist threat, meaning the Arab people themselves in their revolutions are not against the interests of the West as some Arab communist revolutionaries may have been back in the 1960’s. On the contrary, the youth leading charge see themselves very much a part of a globalized world. They seek the same freedoms the United States and other Western nations enjoy. The world has been sympathetic to their struggle. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia has little to offer in soft power terms.

Geo-economically and geo-socially, the region itself is in a shambles and in need of massive reform. The Arab population continues to burgeon and is in dire need of opportunities and jobs- something which even Saudi Arabia with all of its endowed resources has not figured out for its own population. Official Saudi reports place unemployment at 10%, which is considered a gross underestimate of actual, especially among the youth. But even if we took the Saudi figure at face value, it means there are hundreds of thousands of jobless Saudi youths with no future and no voice to ask for any. Saudi Arabia’s own economic woes are not an example with which it can lead the region. Neither are its social ills. Half of its population (women) is not allowed to work fully yet (granted there has been recent improvement), and the other half due to numbing government subsidies may not have enough incentive to. On every trip to Saudi, one indelibly reads reports of the need for Saudization, a term used to for the government policy aiming to replace foreign expat labor with indigenous Saudi workers. While it is a good policy, it nonetheless points to the structural problems the kingdom is facing. This situation can hardly be exported to a region so direly in need of micro-productivity, entrepreneurial activity, and employment opportunities.

And finally on the technological side, any form of censorship has been muffled due to advances in Satellite communication, mobile telephony, and the Internet. In the book I mention some anecdotes from within Saudi on the very subject highlighting the futility of any form of censorship in this day and age.

And yet, a report recently listed Prince Waleed bin Talal as the most powerful Arab in the globe. Perhaps this power tends to give a person a sense of confidence to tackle any problem. Unfortunately, the Arab region’s calamity is one problem neither Waleed nor the Kingdom as a whole with all their resources can oppose let alone resolve. Nor can any other nation for that matter. In fact, in the book I argue that each Arab nation will have to resolve its problems one citizen at a time giving them self-determination but also exerting self-sufficiency. For that to happen indigenous reform is what is needed not imposed stifling. Saudi Arabia, which also needs internal reform, would stand to benefit if it realized that it cannot begin reforming its own society by impeding everyone else from reforming their own.

Ironically, in the very same report, which listed Bin Talal as the most Powerful Arab, Wael Ghonim, the Egyptian Google mid-manager credited with enabling the Egyptian uprising, was listed as the second most powerful. This has led some to conclude that power and money still rule. Actually, it doesn't. For in the region, there are only a dozen or more Billionaires such as Waleed, but there are potentially 300 million Waels out there.

Waleed would be better served not to bet against the Arab revolutions, nor spend his money impeding the wheels of change and the Waels of the Arab world. Instead, he should try to find ways to invest in reform within the kingdom, which is direly needed to improve the livelihood of the Saudi people. The way for a stable and prosperous Saudi Kingdom is to reform internally and not to oppose it internationally.

Can Technology End Conflict?

Technology as the book outlines is a human development tendency that is irreversible and global in nature. In the Arab World, technology for better or worse has been playing a major role in human development for the past 30 years. The book details some of these tendencies and discusses the effects that they are indelibly having on youth in particular and the region as a whole.


The following BBC article is further proof of things to come:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13525440

New cracks form in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

This is a very interesting article about what is occurring within Egypt's Muslim brotherhood post Mubarak. It vindicates one of the book's Chapter 8 arguments that essentially Islamist parties in themselves have different currents and the best way to draw out their mainstream and moderate tones is through democratization and dialogue not impending face-off and stifling.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110626/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt

Can the Syrian Regime Overcome the Uprising?

There are many who believe the Assad's Syrian regime has what it takes to overcome the current crisis. "It has many hidden cards still to play," they claim. The Syrian regime itself on regional TV stations seems confident it can. The problem with this thinking is that it disregards four key realities (elements) that I discuss in the book.

First the geo-political situation. The regime's action over the past two months seems to indicate that it is indeed stuck in a different era. During the 1970's, Syria was surrounded with autocrats, supported by a mighty Soviet Union, and very much facing an expansionist Israel. The regime thrived. But none of these factors exist anymore. Syria is now surrounded by emerging albeit fledgling democracies, its major benefactor the Soviet Union disintegrated two decades ago, and Israel's expansionist policies excepting settlements have all but ceased. All Syria can count on now is Iran's support. Unfortunately, this may prove more a liability than an asset both internally and internationally. Besides, Iran itself has enough to cope with facing a serious embargo and dealing with its own internal turmoil.

Secondly and thirdly, the geo-social and geo-economic situation have also substantially deteriorated. Syria has ballooned to a population of almost 25 million most of whom are youth. Unfortunately, the country's archaic economic structure based on an expired centralized planning model has failed. The few reforms that have been promised and the fewer still that have been implemented are nowhere near what is needed for the country to get back on its feet. With the little oil it had having almost dried up, the current regime has no immediate remedies let alone ideas of how to resolve the current economic calamity. The longer the uprising carries on affecting direcly needed tourism and trade, the worse things are likely to get.

Fourthly, even though the regime has tried its best to muffle any news coming out of the country, technology has managed to keep a link between the people and the outside world disseminating news of the regime's violence. Social media connectivity, mobile connectivity, and satellite have all kept the protestors in touch between themselves and with the outside world. Short of calamitously shutting down all telephone and internet communications, the regime can really do nothing about this.

And so the question I usually ask those who theorize that the regime has "many hidden cards left to play", is what exactly are these cards? The regime has shown its hand to its people and the world at large and no one likes it. Ironically even Putin, a product of the Soviet era and a leader not known to mince words, pointing to Syria recently stated, “In the modern world it is impossible to use political instruments of 40 years ago.”

These are indeed changing times where all cards are out in the open, and bluffing quite futile. The sooner the Syrian regime and its mouth pieces realize this, the better it is for all. Change is inevitable.